In 2005 Bolivia was about the poorest country in Latin America, despite having ‘given’ immense wealth to Europe. The ‘Cerro Rico’ hill at Potosí has yielded an estimated 60,000 tons of silver. But mining in Bolivia brought misery and early graves to the miners, never riches.

While a basically bourgeois revolution in 1952 led to agrarian reform, the peasants got land but little else. Neoliberal austerity policies were imposed in the 1980s. Resistance to them grew in a population with a large proportion of indigenous communities, which still have strong collective organisation and discipline. Much of the rest of the population is ‘mestizo’ with indigenous roots, but a small elite of European descent historically ruled the country.

A militant and successful ‘water war’ against privatisation in Cochabamba in 2000 was followed by a successful ‘gas war’ in 2003. At the cost of 67 deaths, the export of recently discovered natural gas reserves by transnationals on terms favourable to them was defeated.

One of the best organised popular movements is that of coca leaf growers in the tropical part of the country, four hours by bus from the city of Cochabamba. Evo Morales is their recognised leader. What is their origin?

After the bourgeois revolution and land reform of 1952, the peasant population in the cold, dry highlands (altiplano) of Bolivia began to increase. As population pressure grew, some in government thought it a good idea to move people to the hot, wet underpopulated land in the Amazon basin near Cochabamba. These people were given land, some plants and virtually nothing else. I saw the situation in Chapare in 1973: they grew bananas on small plots and lived in misery, with no infrastructure, no government marketing and no hope. They were paid the equivalent of 5 pence for about 15kg of bananas. Intermediaries took all the profit. So when they were offered good prices for coca leaves, they had no hesitation in taking them. Coca growers were being well paid for their leaves.

Coca leaves are traditionally chewed by many Bolivians – they have a soothing effect and relieve hunger and tiredness. They can also be processed to produce cocaine.

By 2001, when I saw the area again, strong cooperatives had been created, with good buildings. Evo Morales had been elected as one of two anti-imperialist deputies to the national congress. In 1997 they had established a political vehicle, the MAS-IPSP: Movement to Socialism – Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples. It is generally known as MAS, but its full name indicates that it was an instrument for social movements.

In 2002, MAS won second place in general elections, winning 34% of the vote in the run-off ballot. This scared them witless because they were totally unprepared to govern. A process of rapid development of the MAS followed and in 2005 Evo Morales was elected president, with an unprecedented absolute majority of the votes - the first ever indigenous president. MAS had a majority in the Congress from then until 2025.

With Evo Morales, and then Luis Arce as President, Bolivia has been transformed. The large natural gas and oil deposits were nationalised. The country now receives 80% of the income from this, instead of 18% as before. A large factory producing urea, an important fertiliser, was built and in 2025 there were 100 industrialisation projects underway.

Most importantly, in 2006 a new constitution was written and approved, declaring Bolivia to be ‘plurinational’. The majority indigenous population (especially Aymara and Quechua) were recognised after centuries of enslavement and marginalisation. Racial discrimination was outlawed. The change in their status and how they see themselves was immediately evident.

So things went well, in general, until 2019. Evo’s lack of formal education was compensated for by the professionals in his cabinet, above all Luis Arce, a socialist economist and minister of the economy. A universal pension was introduced – small but important to the impoverished majority of the people. Also, small education grants encouraged school attendance from primary level up. In these years Bolivia saw impressive growth rates. GDP doubled between 2006 and 2014, and extreme poverty fell from 38% to 18%. Many aspects of life were transformed, with subsidised fuel, a lot of high quality construction, a network of 12 teleféricos or cable cars around La Paz, the biggest city.

MAS has defined its ideology as "Communitarian socialism to liberate Bolivia from the colonial state", envisioning the path of a cultural and democratic revolution in Bolivia. It has been consistently anti-imperialist in its foreign policy, and was the third member of the ALBA alliance of nations (Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America) after Cuba and Venezuela.

Evo won a recall referendum in 2008, and was re-elected in 2009 and 2014. Under the new constitution, that should have been his limit. However, his personal ambition was not satisfied. In 2018 he called a referendum to override that limit. He lost, but then appealed to the Constitutional Court, to allow him to stand again in 2019, because term limits were against human rights. This created a lot of bad feeling, and so his margin of victory in 2019 was narrow. Delays in the count led to Evo asking the Organisation of American States to audit the votes and this was a big mistake. The OAS immediately made an unsubstantiated claim that there was evidence of fraud.

This gave the excuse for the armed forces chiefs to ‘ask’ Evo to resign, as right-wing groups and police moved to intimidate MAS supporters. A brutal right-wing regime was established and set about reversing the popular gains of 14 years. Promised new elections were repeatedly delayed, until mass pressure, with road blocks isolating the biggest cities of La Paz and El Alto, forced the issue. Thus new elections were held in 2020, and Evo’s party won with 55%, and Luis Arce as president.

Arce continued the MAS programme of development, with 100 industrialisation projects including a major steel plant near a big iron ore deposit. But Evo Morales continued to insist that he be able to stand for re-election, against his constitution and all legal rulings. MAS became two factions, one supporting Arce and a smaller one supporting Evo.

The country has probably the biggest reserves of lithium in the world, easily extractable from salt lakes as in Argentina and Chile. A joint venture with a German company to produce batteries was cancelled after the 2019 coup. Another venture with a Chinese company was still at the investment stage and was cancelled after the 2025 election.

Recent economic problems also greatly reduced the popularity of MAS. Natural gas production has fallen, and Argentina no longer needs it. Exports are down and a combination of the right wing and Evo supporters in the congress blocked the government from obtaining dollars to import diesel and other fuels. So there were transport problems, and resulting shortages of goods. In view of this, Arce declined his right to seek re-election, and another leader of MAS stood in 2025.

The MAS vote collapsed to 3%, and there was a run-off between two right-wingers. One was a known far-right figure from the Santa Cruz lowlands; the other, a milder unknown, stood as a Christian Democrat. And the popular vote went to the latter, Rodrigo Paz. He was elected and has proven to be another pro-imperialist, setting about selling the country’s resources. In view of the fuel crisis, he ended the large government subsidy. This meant a big increase in the cost of living, but the people accepted this as necessary. Other austerity policies - the moves to sell off natural resources, privatise state companies and in general cosy up to Trump - have, however, provoked massive protests.

The leaders of these protests were also the leaders of the strong social movements: the COB (Central de Obreros Bolivianos – Bolivian Workers’ Centre), the peasants’ CSUTCB (Unified Confederation of Peasant Workers’ Unions of Bolivia) which is affiliated to the COB, and the indigenous communities, including the important Bartolina Sisi National Federation of Indigenous Peasant Women of Bolivia (Federación Nacional de Mujeres Campesinas Indígenas Originarias de Bolivia - Bartolina Sisa (CNMCIOB-BS)). Using the now traditional method of roadblocks, they isolated the main cities of La Paz and El Alto (which really form a single unit), causing shortages of food, fuel, medicines and so on. These protests were paused in June but with their leaders pledging that the struggle would go on.

In response to the protests, President Paz wavered between threats of repression and calls for dialogue. Arrest warrants for two leaders were revoked, to try to obtain dialogue with them and at the same time a law was passed to allow the army to repress protests. In July, despite the blockades being suspended, peasant leader, Vincente Salazar was arrested by police and ordered to spend 6 months in preventative detention. Authorities in another state have also filed criminal complaints against Salazar, Morales and another COB leader, Mario Argollo.

New protests against an increase in diesel prices, and also involving business groups, were announced in August.

Aside from the protests against its unpopular policies, the government now has another set of problems to deal with. On 17th August, news footage showed a woman being shot three times by a hitman in Santa Cruz, an attempted murder though the victim survived. It emerged that she was Nadia Beller, a lawyer and former partner of Fernando Cerimedo, an Argentinian ‘political advisor’. Cerimedo was quickly arrested at the airport as he tried to flee to Argentina, and accused of attempted femicide. Searches of his properties in La Paz led to him being investigated for illegal enrichment when large quantities of cash were found, as well as a ‘mini bot farm’.

Facts began to be reported about his past. He spent several years in the USA. On his return to Argentina, he started a political marketing organisation called ‘Numen’, registered in Argentina and Miami, and a news outlet called ‘Right Wing News’ (La Derecha Diario). Cerimedo developed what are known as troll or bot farms, electronic systems for sending thousands of misleading messages or fake news to social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, X etc. They specialise in smearing the reputations of left wing candidates. So he had the resources to deliver important and effective publicity that influenced elections where far right candidates were elected. This use of ‘bots’ has long been suspected, but we have never had a flesh and blood person, an organiser of it, exposed in this way. He has admitted “we do negative campaigns”.

Cerimedo was an advisor to the openly right-wing president in Argentina, Mauricio Macri, for his election in 2015 – the first right-winger to be elected in a while. Then he advised the now pro-fascist president of Chile during the campaigns for a new constitution, in 2020 and 2022. He moved on to work for Jair Bolsonaro in 2018, the first far right president of Brazil, and for the election of far right Javier Milei in Argentina, 2023. When Lula de Silva defeated Bolsonaro in 2024, Cerimedo’s bots cast doubts on the accuracy of the electronic voting and this helped pave the way for Bolsonaro’s attempted coup. Cerimedo was investigated but could not be charged.

In 2025 he worked both in Honduras, helping the far right Nasry Asfura win, and in Bolivia in support of Rodrigo Paz. When Paz won the first round of the presidential election, Cerimedo moved there from Argentina. Mysteriously, he immediately became an important advisor to Paz on the second round of the campaign. When Paz was elected he stayed on as a right hand man. He attended all important meetings, including when Paz met Donald Trump, and ‘helped’ select future ministers and so on. All this despite him having no declared post or job and no government salary. As a foreigner, that would have been a sensitive issue in Bolivia.

It is clear that Cerimedo is part of a network that was organised from the USA. He is disposable, his past as a fraudster (he served time after selling the same flat in Argentina to two people), his personal corruption and the allegation of attempted murder might mean he will have to be discarded by his imperialist masters, but the same sort of operations will continue. One inconvenience is his role in the government of Rodrigo Paz. The Vice-President Edmand Lara has exposed Cerimedo’s position as ‘the power behind the throne’. Lara was put on Paz’s ticket to win electoral support, because he is that unusual creature, an honest cop. He was known for exposing police corruption, and lost his job as result. Following his exposure of the corruption of Paz and Cerimedo’s influence, he has been stripped of most of his powers as Vice-President by illegal decrees.