by Frieda Park

Since coming to office President Donald Trump’s actions and words have laid bare the bottom line of US unipolar hegemony. Behind the façade of multilateral institutions and collaboration, the reality was always one of US dominance. Trump’s aggressive assertion of US interests has made plain the truth that other powers are second class and their leaderships are struggling to cope with their erstwhile position as valued allies being suddenly and very publicly downgraded. It is also hugely humiliating for powers that went along enthusiastically with the US when it encouraged them to support its proxy war in Ukraine and, in the case of Germany trash its economy, only for the US to change course unilaterally and pursue a peace agreement. The ramifications and how to respond are only just beginning to be understood in the rest of the West.

US IMPERIAL POWER

The rise of the United States as the world’s dominant imperialist power started before it became the one superpower with the end of the Soviet Union. It had been the hegemonic imperialist power since it decisively replaced Britian by the end of the Second World War with Suez being the nail in Britain’s coffin. Weakened from the war and faced with the example of the Soviet Union and the other socialist countries, it was relatively easy for the US to dominate the old imperial powers – Britian, France, and defeated Germany, Italy and Japan. Whilst there were international institutions and bi-lateral relations which expressed a sense of collaboration and consensually kept pro-Western forces on board, the reality was that these institutions largely served US purposes. Lacking the ability to assert themselves against US power and its overwhelming control through the dollar, its economic and technical might and its military, the old powers had no alternative to carry on in a second class position to the US, whilst trying to carve out a bit of space for their own interests. The saddest version of this was Britian’s claim to have a “special relationship” with the US, which had supplanted it as the lead imperialist power. Starmer’s desperate attempts to try to curry favour with Trump only underline that everything is entirely on the US terms and the relationship is not very special.

In that Donald Trump’s first priority is pursuing the interests of United States imperialism this represents continuity with all previous administrations but, it is his approach that is different. President Roosevelt liked the aphorism, “Speak softly and carry a big stick: you will go far” This speaks volumes in itself and of course to nations of the Global South, subjected historically to big stick treatment, the “speak softly” part was always irrelevant. Now Trump has abandoned the “speak softly” part for Western “allies” too.

UKRAINE

Donald Trump is a man in a hurry. He only has this term in which to achieve his objectives as he cannot run for office again. His top priority ever since his first term, has been to focus on China’s challenge to US hegemony. This explains his rush to conclude the war in Ukraine which in any case is being lost. Among the objectives of the Biden administration was to weaken and perhaps even dismember Russia to leave it open to exploitation by US firms. That will clearly not now be achieved by means of this war. Trump looks like he is eyeing up normalisation with Russia to gain access to its natural resources which in addition to oil, gas and other materials has some of the world’s biggest reserves of the rare earths essential for hi-tech production. This also motivates his demands to extract Ukraine’s mineral resources for the US. It is hard to efficiently exploit other countries in a war zone. Hence another reason why Trump is moving fast for a peace deal.

He has seen, and been critical of, the quagmire of the “forever” wars that left the United States bogged down in the Middle East and Afghanistan, so he prefers to crush the toes of the European countries, including Ukraine itself, and get a deal done quickly. The direct engagement of the US with Russia should leave no doubt about this being proxy war.

Another factor in ending the war was that it has undermined the long term US strategy of keeping Russia and China divided to play one off against the other. In fact the war brought them together in a closer alliance than possibly at any time in their histories. Trying to drive a wedge back into that relationship aids the US/Trump priority of isolating and taking on China.

Trump’s gratuitous and insulting behaviour should not conceal the logic behind his actions. He aims to sustain the US as the hegemonic superpower and confront China without unnecessary distractions.

He has long advocated for other NATO members to up their arms spending. They are now in the process of doing just that, a great excuse for the war camp in each country who cite mythical threats, not only from Russia, but from Iran, North Korea and China. Our media tells us that we must get used to there being no peace dividend, implying that peaceful economic development is not a normal state of affairs, and instead look forward to the slashing of public spending, a project eagerly embraced by the Starmer government. Of course there is an alternative, and that is to jump off this warmonger’s merry-go-round and seek peaceful, collaborative relations with other countries.

ISRAEL PALESTINE

Clearing the decks of the Ukraine war is one thing, however, dealing with Israel and Palestine is quite another. Israel remains the bastion of US imperial power in the region despite the reactionary nature of petro-states like Saudi Arabia and others. Although his first term “peace plan” for Israel and Palestine went nowhere as it was totally biased in Israel’s interests and rejected by the Palestinians, Trump did make progress in brokering diplomatic relations between Israel and some of Arab countries through the Abrahm Accords– The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. The Abraham Accords were designed to marginalise the Palestinians and consolidate reactionary Arab states along with Israel. It aimed to draw in Saudi Arabia, which would have been the jewel in the crown and it remains the hope of the US that it can be brought on board. Yet progress on improving relations with the Arab countries in the Middle East has been set back enormously by America’s support for the genocide in Gaza.

To try to ease the situation somewhat for the US and Israel, Trump insisted on a ceasefire deal, evidencing that the US, as its major backer, has the power to force Israel to act since it had long rejected any moves towards such a deal. But Trump’s way forward here is much messier than ending the war in Ukraine, with so many competing powers in the region, particularly with the fall of Assad in Syria. There remain two certainties, however, support for Israel will continue as will the continuing battle to destabilise Iran.

THE EUROPEAN UNION

The crisis within the imperial powers of Europe caused by Trump runs deeper than just the problem of how to respond to him, for these powers were stagnating, or declining, economically even before the further economic hit caused by the Ukraine war. The ongoing crisis of political legitimacy of the traditional parties which used to manage capitalism in a relatively stable way is deepening.

In Germany the elections gave the right, the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union the biggest number of seats, but far short of a majority and on the second lowest number of votes they ever received. The Social Democrats, which previously had the biggest number of seats and provided the Chancellor slumped, receiving the lowest number of votes in its history and coming third behind the far right Alternative for Germany. Having come out of the 2008 financial crisis as the leading economic power in Europe Germany’s economy has now tanked. It was the worst performing major country in 2023 and has not got out of that hole. The economic crisis had several contributory factors, but a key one was Germany’s decision, under pressure from the United States, to end imports of Russian gas and close the Nord Stream pipeline. All this has had its effects on the living standards of ordinary Germans, so it is no wonder that voters have deserted the traditional parties. The left, however, remains weak and the beneficiaries of this dissatisfaction have been the far right.

In France President Macron undermined his own legitimacy by calling elections in which he substantially lost ground. In this case the left was united and better organised and gained the biggest number of seats in the National Assembly, followed by Macron’s party and then the far right National Front. Macron has refused to accept the left’s position as the biggest bloc in the Assembly and the government is now very unstable.

Of course the EU as a whole has massive economic problems, is disunited on key issues, including the war in Ukraine and has put any question of enlargement on hold. To be an effective instrument of European imperialism (i.e. German and French) the EU’s cumbersome structure, economic architecture and nominal rights of member states would need to change. It is possible that rather than integration on the basis of equality that there will be first and second and perhaps even third class EU members with the richest states driving economic and political policy. Any such move would inevitably lead to deepening splits within the EU, which is possibly what has held the idea back from being implemented so far. In other words the EU is in a state of paralysis with weakened leaders, economic failure, divisions among member states and discontented populations.

BRITAIN

Under the surface of a united front over Ukraine, the Labour government in Britain is in chaos caused by Starmer and his team’s multiple failures on policy and terrible communication. Whilst the Tories under Kemi Badenoch still languish, it is Reform UK which is picking up support and is on top in some polls beating both Labour and the Tories. Despite its own problems the SNP now has a clear lead once again over Labour in Scotland.

The media fanfare round his actions on Ukraine have boosted Starmer’s popularity but that is unlikely to survive the bruising cuts to the public sector and further damage to the economy that are coming down the line and that is not to mention his mission to cuddle up closer to the failing EU. In-fighting within the right of the party, concerned at the prospect of losing the next election may have been put into abeyance by Starmer suddenly launching himself on the world stage as saviour of Ukraine and chief Trump whisperer, but the discontent is there.

Unfortunately there is little active opposition to Starmer in the shape of industrial action or protests. Disturbingly some unions have embraced increasing arms spending. The government has signaled that this will be achieved by cuts to public services.

The exception in this downbeat picture is the steadfast work of activists campaigning in solidarity with the people of Palestine and against Israeli apartheid and genocide.

TRUMP'S LEGACY?

It is impossible to say a lot at this stage about what the long term consequences of Trump’s actions will be. Will there be a similarly minded successor to follow him into the White House as the next President? A problem for that prospect and for Trump’s remaining term in office is that his policies are undermining his support base. Trade wars and tariffs will push up prices for ordinary Americans and economically he seems focused on the tech industry which, while strategically vital to US imperialism, doesn’t employ a lot of people, especially not in the Trump voting rust belt. Elon Musk is in fact putting more Americans out of work by decimating public sector jobs. A consequence of the suspension of US Aid has been that farmers face going out of business as they used to sell a lot of their crops to the government who then gave them to US Aid to send abroad.

Though he has set off at breakneck speed to get things done, Trump will also be slowed down at some point by differences within his own administration and opposition from within disgruntled parts of the establishment and sectors of US capital. This is already manifesting itself through the courts as challenges to his executive orders. The stock market which rose on Trump’s election has recently fallen again amid unpredictability over on/off tariffs and the impact they may have.

So maybe after Trump’s term of office there will be a return to the old norms of the US dominating the globe, speaking softly but with the big stick when that is more effective.

Even if there is a quick return to the good old (bad old) days, nevertheless Trump’s actions will not be forgotten in the West and across the globe. The US will inevitably lose credibility and trust. What the impact of that will be remains to be seen.

Trump can woo other countries where he considers it advantageous and straight bullying tactics won’t work, as with Russia, but mostly he is deploying intimidation including escalating tariffs or the threat of them against pretty much everyone. Bullying can be very effective if your victims have no alternative supports or if countries feel that acquiescing is a more stable route for them than taking an uncertain and risky direction.

But there is a growing alternative to US domination. Since the US lost its grip on the Global South over Ukraine and Gaza, there have been the development of bi-lateral agreements and multi-lateral bodies such as BRICS+, which has expanded, and trading and financial arrangements which allowed Russia to evade US sanctions. Russia and China moved closer and China continues to grow as a major world power economically and technologically. But none of this is consolidated in the way that post-war financial, political and military institutions were under US hegemony. Whilst the US certainly shows signs of decay and decline, nevertheless its power remains massive and countries might not think they can rely on the alternatives when under American pressure. Whilst at one level US bullying will still be a spur to resistance, nevertheless there will be countries that submit to it, with new divisions appearing among the countries of the Global South.

The world is volatile. In the last three years there have been actions that have caused major upheavals: the Ukraine war, Israel’s genocide in Gaza, the fall of Assad in Syria and the undermining of Hezbollah and Trump’s re-election have all had impacts which could not be entirely be foreseen and resulted in shifting the balance of forces for and against imperialism. What might the next spark be and will it benefit the forces of progress or of reaction? There has also been a shake down of existing relationships between imperialist powers with US disregard and even hostility to its old allies. As the imperialist powers, including the US, fall into deepening crises and they seek to confront the rise of China the world will certainly not be a safer or more peaceful place. One clear legacy of Trump will be the West’s growing hostility to China. Fortunately China’s responses to world events tend to be less confrontational and more measured, but the United States sees its continued rise as a growing existential threat to its hegemony and has the potential to go to any lengths, including war, to stop it.

United States "big stick" the USS Theodore Rooesvelt. Photo by Kaylianna Genier

Under the surface of a united front over Ukraine, the Labour government in Britain is in chaos caused by Starmer and his team's multiple failures on policy and terrible communication.

President Macron and Prime Minister Starmer search for ideas. Photo by Number 10