By Dan Morgan in Chile

The last four years have indeed seen an upsurge in popular movements in South America, with notable achievements. The wave of protests in Chile led to the election of Gabriel Boric on a progressive programme, representing a left coalition.

COLOMBIA

The even more impressive movement in Colombia resulted in Gustavo Petro’s election - he faces enormous challenges but speaks powerfully about confronting them.  In both countries, police used the new tactic, to us, of shooting directly at the face of protesters – rubber-clad metal bullets, gunshot pellets and teargas cylinders. Petro has a solid majority in Congress, and a coalition including urban and rural leaders. Armed paramilitaries still threaten rural leaders, assassinations still occur, but Petro seems to be a determined leader. Colombia hosts several US military bases and has long had the strongest ties to the USA in South America, so any steps Petro takes to affect this alliance, and US economic interests, would be dangerous. 

PERU

Pedro Castillo was elected in Peru, for the first time a leader representing the people, with massive voting from the marginalised South of the country. He followed a series of corrupt Presidents (nearly all convicted of corruption) and tried to decentralise, visiting all regions to meet local leaders, hear problems and give some solutions. Blocked at every turn by a corrupt Congress, he eventually tried to close it down and call new elections. The Congress then dismissed him, with the support of the US-trained Armed Forces leaders. At the time he had 30% approval, and the Congress just 10%! Massive protests followed – road and rail blocks, storming of airports, big demonstrations in Lima including the Trade Unions. The police and army have killed over 50 people, more than 30 of these deaths were proven to be caused by bullets. The de facto President Boluarte, a turncoat, hangs on but her position is fragile.

BOLIVIA

A coup d’état took place in Bolivia in 2019. A false accusation of electoral fraud was made, and this was backed up by delegates from the Organisation of American States (based in Washington) and the US-trained army chiefs. A neo-fascist and racist government started to reverse the gains made over 13 years of progressive government. In the best example of fight-back, a massive movement by indigenous people blocked roads and threatened to starve La Paz if promised elections were not held.  So after 13 months, the Movement to Socialism was re-elected. The large indigenous minority has dignity again, economic progress is solid, people’s lives improve, building goes on apace, industrialisation of lithium, iron and other sectors continues. Bolivia is the most successful of the first ‘pink wave’ countries. Taking national control of its main natural resources in 2006, oil and gas, was crucial. Before that, the nation received just 18% of the value of these resources, in taxes. Afterwards, up to 82%. Now the huge lithium deposits promise to be a motor of development including processing and battery production, done jointly with a Chinese company.

BRAZIL

Lula defeating Bolsonaro in Brazil was a great relief but his ability to make real changes is very limited. He is in coalition with fairly right-wing social democrats. If significant social improvements are not made, the way will be open again to Bolsonaro or other fascists. Bolsonaro was clever enough to retain  the Bolsa Familia program Lula started to end hunger, even increase the payments during the Covid pandemic. Lula’s successor Dilma Rousseff was impeached by Congress on spurious grounds.  Then Lula was prevented from standing in 2018 and the racist, pro-fascist Bolsonaro was elected. Racism is very strong in Brazil. It was the last major country to end slavery, in 1888.

Now by decree, Lula has ended the move to privatise 7 strategic companies. On April 12^th to 15^th he visited China, after a business delegation, and signed 20 economic agreements. As in Bolivia and other countries, renewed economic cooperation with China will give the best prospects of growth and a better life for Brazilians.

CHILE

The situation in Chile is not good. The heavy defeat in September of the draft of a progressive new Constitution (62% to 38%) led to triumphalism on the right, and demoralisation on the left. There is a turn to the right. President Boric is a declared social democrat and an ally of the US in foreign policy, generally. He now governs more with the parties in the old ‘centre-left’ Concertación than with the more left-wing parties he was elected alongside. Without a majority in Congress, progress on urgently needed reforms is very slow. Again, unless people can see an improvement in their lives, the neo-fascist Kast could be elected next time.

THE REALITIES OF STATE POWER

So this is Pink Tide 2.0. What happened to the first? Broadly, it was defeated by a combination of economic down-turns leading to discontent, and the use of legal manoeuvres to remove progressive leaders. Thus Lula’s successor Dilma Rousseff was impeached on spurious grounds in 2016.

As well as assassination on a mass scale in Chile and Argentina in the 1970s, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights has found that the Colombian State took part in an intense campaign of violence in the 1980s and 1990s, that ended the lives of thousands of members of the left-wing party Patriotic Union (Unión Patriótica). Imperialism tries to avoid using direct military coups now, they are bad publicity, but lately we have seen ‘silent’ coups, where US-trained army chiefs support reactionary take-overs, such as in Bolivia and Peru.

The central problem of state power has been largely ignored. As mentioned in the cases of Bolivia and Peru but also relevant in Honduras, Brazil and elsewhere, the armed forces are usually led by officers trained at the USA’s School of the Americas – now renamed The Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation but with the same purpose. They always side with reactionaries at times of political crisis.

Significantly, the only country to remain continuously from the first tide is Venezuela where Hugo Chavez came from a progressive section of the military. Democratic restructuring of the armed forces is a vital need but a very hot potato. In Chile they always loom as ‘guardians of stability’. Before 1973 there were many democratically minded officers but since then cadets are carefully screened politically.

The judiciary also needs to be changed in most countries, to prevent it being used to thwart the popular will, as happened notably in Brazil, Argentina and Ecuador. Again, a nettle that must be grasped in order to achieve democratic control of these state institutions.

Above all, possibly, is the need for a democratic press, radio and TV. At the moment these media are dominated by capitalist owners, often transnational (CNN, Verizon, Reuters etc). They support the economic interests of North American and European imperialist companies, create support for neoliberal polices and stifle real political discussion on the way forward.

Popular control of natural resources and other major industries is essential to dramatically improve people’s lives, as is happening in Bolivia. Movements that promise this must be developed and strong enough to overcome the opposition from the capitalist mass media, judiciary and armed forces. Such movements will face sanctions from the USA designed to crush them, but now China is the largest trading partner for most of South America, the Dollar is no longer almighty, and this gives a great advantage for social progress.

We need media owned by cooperatives, trade unions and progressive governments themselves, to end the present cultural hegemony in favour of the status quo. Howls of anger go up when anything like this is mentioned. It’s another hot potato, but an issue that must be dealt with if we are to prevent another reactionary tide washing away the present victories.

These problems of how to advance from a progressive government to real democratic control of the country – its bureaucracy, military and judiciary - are huge. For real economic independence and progress, for real democracy, the issue of state power has to be confronted. The most likely scenario for moving to democratic control is when there is a political crisis, and the popular movement grows strong enough to impose its will. This was the case in Venezuela and Bolivia, others will follow.

Gustavo Petro supporter in Colombia. Pic by Julianhumano

As well as assassination on a mass scale in Chile and Argentina in the 1970s, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights has found that the Colombian State took part in an intense campaign of violence in the 1980s and 1990s, that ended the lives of thousands of members of the left-wing party Patriotic Union (Unión Patriótica).