By Pat Turnbull

On 5 August Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and left the country for Hindon Air Base near New Delhi, India.

ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS

Heeding the lessons of history, Sheikh Hasina and her supporters may have feared for her life. She is the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh’s first president and co-founder of the party which she leads, the Bangladesh Awami League (BAL). Rahman was assassinated on August 15 1975. Sheikh Hasina and her sister Sheikh Rehana, being out of the country at the time, were the only members of her family to survive the attack by army personnel who invaded their home as part of a coup d’etat.

On 21 August 2004, terrorists attacked a rally in front of the Awami League’s central office on Bangabandhu Avenue in Dhaka. Sheikh Hasina and top leaders of the Awami League escaped, but Ivy Rahman, Women Affairs Secretary, was killed along with 24 activists. More than 400 people were injured, many of them permanently crippled. There is no doubt that Hasina was the target.

Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s residence, now a museum, and his statue in front of it, have been vandalised. Offices of the Bangladesh Awami League, co-founded by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1949, and for the past 15 years the ruling party, have been ransacked.

REGIME CHANGE  

On August 6 2024, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus was appointed head of an interim government. Vijay Prashad wrote, ‘Yunus as the founder of the micro credit movement and promoter of “social business” used to be seen as primarily a phenomenon in the neoliberal NGO world…The students see him as a figurehead although his neoliberal politics of austerity might be at odds with their key demand, which is employment.’ (Consortium News 16/8/24)

On 9/8/24 the Daily Observer reported that leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) – the chief opposition to the Awami League - had met with United Nations resident coordinator in Bangladesh, Gwyn Lewis. BNP standing committee member Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said after the meeting: “No one has any doubts concerning a neutral election. We have achieved independence for the second time with strong support from the people and the international community, especially the UN. Development partners of Bangladesh, who displayed concerns regarding their country’s future, had their doubts dispelled today.”

The violent protests in Bangladesh and the crackdown by the armed forces have been reported in the UK as student protests against a quota system for government jobs which included 30% for relations of veterans who fought for the independence of Bangladesh from Pakistan in the war of 1971. The Supreme Court acceded to the students’ demands and scaled back the veterans’ quota to 5%, but the protests continued, even after Hasina had left the country. As reported in the Dhaka Tribune 9/8/24, ‘Following Sheikh Hasina’s resignation as the prime minister on Monday, violence and clashes have erupted across Bangladesh, with at least 232 people reported dead…over the past three days…Previously, during the quota and anti-discrimination student movements from July 16 to August 4, a total of 328 deaths were reported.’ Leaders of the Awami League and their families were some of the immediate victims after Hasina’s departure, including young men hacked to death, and others burned alive in house fires. Hindus also became victims of sectarian attacks.

Soon the process of nailing Awami League leaders through the judicial process began.  ‘Former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, along with six others, has been booked for the murder of a grocery store owner, Dhaka Tribune reported.’  The store owner was reported to have died in a police shooting incident on July 19.  Among the other accused are the Awami League general secretary, former home minister, and former inspector general of police. (Times of India, 13/8/24)

‘Quota Movement and the “Blueprint” for Regime Change in Bangladesh’ was the title of an article on the website of the Bangladesh Awami League 28/7/24 which began: ‘The blueprint for a regime change was cooking in the background for the past five months. The Quota Movement provided the perfect cover. The plan was to create terror and chaos across the country through vandalism and arson attacks, and invade central government establishments. To implement this plan, 300,000 cadres of BNP and Jamaat-E-Islami and professional goons were brought to Dhaka from all over Bangladesh.’

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party was founded on 1 September 1978 by General Ziaur Rahman, who became leader of Bangladesh as a result of the coup in which Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was killed. Jamaat-e-Islami is an Islamist fundamentalist movement founded in 1941, the largest Islamist party in Bangladesh, and was banned there on 1 August 2024.

The article continues, ‘Sources from several agencies have confirmed that the plan was to infiltrate the Quota Movement, and using the cover of the general students, create a situation through violence and chaos that the government is forced to resign.’ Targets were the airport, parliament, and BTV, the national broadcaster, as well as the Dhaka-Chattogram highway, which links the capital and Bangladesh’s main port.

The reference to ‘the past five months’ is likely to refer to the time since the January elections, which were pointedly boycotted by Sheikh Hasina’s political opponents, laying the grounds for claims of lack of democracy.

Former Indian diplomat and expert in international security Melkulangara Bhadrakumar offered a similar analysis, ‘The striking similarity of what happened with other colour revolutions must be noted. Wherever Americans demand “democratization”, there is invariably a regime change agenda. This is axiomatic. And when it comes to Bangladesh, it is a lynchpin of the Indo-Pacific strategy. Bangladesh is becoming a crucial player in the geopolitics of the region following the failure of the recent colour revolution in Thailand, the stalemate in Myanmar, India’s refusal to be a pro-western ally and, of course, China’s consolidation in Sri Lanka and Myanmar. All this is happening against the backdrop of the historical moment in the volatile world order, which is in transition. I tend to see the regime change in Pakistan in 2022, and now in Bangladesh, in this light.’ The retired diplomat saw events in Bangladesh as ‘a setback for both India and Russia – and China, for that matter – for whom Hasina was a time-tested friend. Hasina pursued a robustly independent multi-vector foreign policy. Americans will not allow such freedom or strategic autonomy.’ TASS 7/8/24

BANGLADESH RAISES US IRE

There had been earlier signs that Bangladesh had raised the ire of powerful international operators. In an article of 16/12/21 on the Atlantic Council website entitled, ‘US sanctions on Bangladesh’s RAB: What happened? What’s next?’, Dr Ali Riaz, ‘a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center and a distinguished professor at Illinois State University’ wrote: ‘On December 10, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Bangladesh’s elite paramilitary force, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), as well as seven of its current and former officers due to serious human rights violations. These actions came at the last day of the virtual Democracy Summit organized by the White House, to which Bangladesh was not invited...Dhaka summoned the US Ambassador to Bangladesh and expressed its discontent…a punitive measure against it of this scale is unprecedented.’

The article explains that the RAB is an elite unit of the Bangladesh police founded in 2004 under the BNP government led by Khaleda Zia and that, ‘Reports by Human Rights Watch in December 2006 and 2009 documented allegations.’ The obvious question is why impose sanctions now and not then? The article cites as one reason, ‘…there are increasing US interests in the region due to the growing geopolitical and geostrategic importance of South Asia, including Bangladesh…the US…would like to see Bangladesh as a close partner in the region…Washington is expecting Bangladesh to join the Indo-Pacific Strategy.’ But in the face of ‘Bangladesh’s growing relationship with China, especially after joining the Belt and Road Initiative’ and the ‘increasing ideological leanings of the Bangladesh Awami League towards the Chinese model of governance and economic development, the Biden administration decided to act’.  The article ends: ‘Many are wondering whether these sanctions are one-off actions on the part of the US as well as if they will be widened in the future, particularly if the Bangladeshi government decides to ignore them…’

CHINA AND BRICS 

The keynote speech by Ambassador Yao Wen at The Belt and Road Initiative in Bangladesh Report launch, expanded the picture of what has displeased the USA: ‘Bangladesh is the first country in south Asia to join the Belt and Road Initiative…In 2016, President Xi Jinping of China paid a historic visit to Bangladesh and elevated the relationship between the two countries to strategic partner of cooperation. Three years later, Honourable Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina made a landmark visit to China…Last month, President Xi and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina met face-to-face for the first time over the last four years in South Africa…

…China has built 12 roads, 21 bridges and 27 power and energy projects in Bangladesh, and Chinese companies have created more than 550 thousand jobs in Bangladesh. Recently, the Dasherkandi Sewage Treatment Plant Project and the first section of the Dhaka Elevated Expressway have been completed, which contribute to promoting Bangladesh’s economic and social development and uplifting people’s livelihood…

…In the fourth quarter of this year, the Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Tunnel, and the first section of the Padma Bridge Railway Link project will be opened to traffic. The Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone will start construction. The South Alam Coal Fired Plant and Cox’s Bazar Wind Power Plant will be operated commercially…

…China has been Bangladesh’s largest trading partner for 12 consecutive years. Since Bangladesh joined the Belt and Road Initiative in 2016, bilateral trade has grown from 15.3 billion US dollars to 27.8 billion dollars in 2022, which is the highest in the history.’ 

The ambassador also highlighted that, ‘Over the years, China has provided more than 5000 opportunities for Bangladeshi young people to go to China for training and participate in degree education.’ He concluded, ‘The Belt and Road Initiative serves as a platform for China to construct the community with a shared future for mankind. The BRI has no gene of seeking hegemony, no tradition of interfering in other countries’ internal affairs, and no elements of expansion and plunder.’ (website of the Embassy of China in Bangladesh 22/9/23)

In September 2021, Bangladesh also became the first country outside the original BRICS founding members to join the New Development Bank (NDB). The article Bangladesh and New Development Bank (NDB): Accession and after, money and more, by Gregory T. Chin and Rifat D. Kamel (Global Policy 4/5/24), gives more details. Bangladesh’s accession had strong support from India, China and Russia. The then NDB President Marcos Troyjo welcomed Bangladesh as “one of the world’s fastest-growing economies”. The article mentions the government’s Bangladesh Vision 2041, which has the ‘strategic policy goals of becoming an upper middle-income country by 2030 and a high-income country by 2041, eliminating poverty and elevating industrial capacities along the way.’ The NDB saw advantages for the Bank as well, as Bangladesh: ‘…a stable economy in the South Asia region, extends the global reach of the Bank, helps to diversify the bases of financiers and borrowers for the Bank [and] improves the risk profile of the Bank from the perspective of the global credit rating agencies.’ The article stresses that ‘Bangladesh remains one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world; it is extremely difficult and expensive to build modern transportation and communication networks across the country - and yet, it is essential to make substantial investments in climate-resilient infrastructure development.’

In his speech quoted earlier, the Chinese ambassador mentioned the Padma Bridge Project.  The article gives more information on that: ‘This Mega Project was delayed when the World Bank cancelled a US $1.2 billion loan in 2012 due to allegations of corruption which the Government has denied.’  Other factors are likely to diminish Bangladesh’s access to lending from the World Bank in future, which makes possible loans from the NDB more important. ‘NDB sent a high-level delegation to Bangladesh in January 2024 [which] made progress on the financing of several infrastructure projects for 2024…’ These include the Dhaka Water Supply Project expected for June 2024, and the loan to state-owned Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution Company to upgrade old gas pipelines.

INDEPENDENCE AND SOVEREIGNTY 

Back to the Padma Bridge. The article Padma Bridge – A Symbol of Pride and Dignity of Bangladesh – An Engineering Masterpiece (BAL 25/6/22) mentions that in 2017 a Canadian court found no proof of corruption. It also emphasises the importance of the bridge which ‘has connected a third of Bangladesh’s land, entangled with rivers, to the capital’.  The bridge will transform ‘the economic footing of around 50 million people of the south-west part of the country’ (an underdeveloped region) and ‘will also ensure a rise in the national income by at least 1.5 per cent’. It has international significance too; it is on the route of Belt and Road Initiative projects on the trans-Asian network. The BAL said that Bangladesh would finance the project itself and emphasised that many developing and underdeveloped countries are ‘still too reliant on western handouts which prevents them from pursuing independent policies’, and believed that Padma Bridge can be an inspiration to them, an ‘endless source of confidence in one’s own capability and resources’.

One final piece of evidence that this is a classic US regime change agenda comes from Sheikh Hasina herself.  News website Azerbaycan24 reported that ‘In a message on Sunday [11/8/24] cited by the Economic Times, Hasina signalled that she could have retained power if she had agreed to host a US military base in Bangladesh: “I resigned, so that I did not have to see the procession of dead bodies of students…I could have remained in power if I had surrendered the sovereignty of Saint Martin Island and allowed America to hold sway over the Bay of Bengal.” Hasina was referring to Bangladesh’s coral reef island in the northeastern part of the Bay of Bengal…A number of Bangladeshi officials claimed over the past months that the United States had proposed leasing the island on several occasions, but was refused. Hasina said that …US officials met with her before the previous election and sought her support in building an air base on Saint Martin.’ (Azerbaycan24 11/8/24)

 

Sheikh Hasina, former prime minister of Bangladesh. photo by Delwarhossain

The Padma bridge. photo by Azim Khan Ronnie