by Dee Stoneley

Before Israel’s war Palestine was being increasingly marginalised, as the US cultivated closer links between Israel and Arab states in the Middle East. Now it is centre stage with Israel’s current barbarous military assault on Gaza exposing its history of persecution of the Palestinians over 75 years. Countries have been forced to choose sides and apart from the old imperial powers, led by the United States, virtually the whole of the rest of the world stands with the Palestinians and against Israel. It has also scuppered the US attempts to build alliances between Israel and Arab states. (See article in Issue 50 US dominance under threat: a more dangerous world)

But it is not just US plans for the Middle East that have been thrown into crisis, but Israel itself faces a very deep crisis since the Hamas attack on October 7^th, which also accounts in part for the ferocity of its response. Some divisions were there already, the extreme right-wing government of Benjamin Netanyahu had stirred up opposition, especially to its proposed reforms to the judiciary. Netanyahu’s handling of the war has not increased his popularity amid concerns about whether or not he is serious about getting the hostages held in Gaza back, where the war is heading and the damage to Israel’s reputation from the indiscriminate killing of civilians. The war effort will cause economic problems, with reservists called up to the army, the impact on tourism and the growing Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions campaign. Fortress Israel, where Jewish people were supposed to be safe has proven to be a dangerous myth.

How this crisis will resolve itself is unclear at present, with Netanyahu showing no signs of changing track. In the meantime the West, desperate to maintain Israel as its one completely central and reliable ally in the region, is not willing to intervene. Despite real concerns about the handling of the war and whilst mild words of criticism are occasionally voiced, when push comes to shove it throws its lot in with Israel. This was exemplified by John Kirby, US National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, who described the South African application to the International Court of Justice accusing Israel of genocide as, “meritless, counterproductive and completely without any basis in fact whatsoever.”

PALESTINE'S FUTURE 

Yet there is less reticence about prescribing possible futures for Palestine. These include making Gaza uninhabitable or displacing its population to one or more other countries. Well-documented statements advocating this by Israeli officials have formed part of the South African case to the ICJ. Yoav Gallant the Defence Minister has proposed that Israel will keep military control over the strip with some sort of puppet Palestinian administration running day to day life. He suggests that the US, the EU and Egypt should also be involved. Others have favoured dismembering the strip, breaking it up into smaller districts, still with Israeli military control. The US is paying lip service to the involvement of a “reformed” Palestinian Authority being responsible for Gaza. What this is supposed to mean we will probably never find out as Israel has rejected the idea. There have also been calls for regional and international solutions.

However, from all of the proposals is missing one crucial point - that it is up to the Palestinians to determine their own future. The greater the pressure on Palestinians, the more their leaders are coming together. Any solution must be with the involvement and leadership of the different Palestinian political groups. There will be no just outcome for Palestinians nor future peace without this.

As to any decision by the International Court of Justice - if it were to require Israel to cease its military action in Gaza, then the one thing we can be sure of is that Israel will treat this with the contempt it has treated all other international condemnation of its policies in the past. It would continue with the war, but it would be a war that is harder for its backers to justify and will continue to deepen the crisis for the western powers and within Israel itself.