By Marianne Hitchen

Stark warnings are being issued from all quarters about an impending global food crisis. The World Bank says food prices could jump by 37% (BBC 21/4/22) and, as with the coronavirus pandemic, this will hit the working class everywhere the hardest.

War in Ukraine, combined with Western sanctions against Russia, rising inflation and the effects of the pandemic and climate change on global economies, are widely predicted to “push hundreds of millions into poverty and lower nutrition, if the crisis continues” (David Malpass, World Bank president).

Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s biggest producers in agriculture and food. Russia also produces key nutrients in fertilisers, such as potash and phosphate, on a huge scale. “Half the world’s population gets food as a result of fertilisers, and if these are removed then yields for some crops could drop by 50%”, claims international agribusiness boss, Svein Holsether. Fertiliser prices are already high due to soaring gas prices and, with Western sanctions against Russia, set to get higher.

The most immediate effects of the Ukraine war on food availability are likely to be felt in the Middle East and Africa. Russia and Ukraine are major producers of wheat and sunflower oil, goods which are heavily imported by Middle Eastern countries. The biggest importers of these foods are Egypt ($3bn), Turkey ($1.5bn), Indonesia ($603m), Bangladesh ($525m), Nigeria ($394m) and Yemen ($317m) (Aljazeera 29/3/22). It is estimated that war in Ukraine has disrupted the export of one third of the world’s wheat.

According to Tewodros Mekonnen, economist at the International Growth Centre, countries such as Ghana, Ethiopia and Kenya are already hard hit by soaring energy and food prices, and Somalia is enduring the worst drought for 4 decades. “If some [countries] compromise by reducing fertiliser imports, food production would shrink and food prices would rise higher” (TeleSUR 18/4/22).

Svein Holsether again: “We have to keep in mind that in the last two years, there’s been an increase of 100 million more people that go to bed hungry … so for this to come on top of it is really worrying”.

The cost of living crisis in the UK has steadily deepened as official data reveal that the rate of inflation hit 7% in the 12 months to March 2022. This is the highest level for 30 years, and the figures do not even reflect the average 54% increase in energy bills, after the energy price cap was raised on April 1^st 2022.

Yet with prices rising faster than wages, the British government continues to resist pressure to do more to help those already struggling to make ends meet. Money saving guru Martin Lewis has pleaded directly with chancellor Rishi Sunak for political intervention. He says that his money management tips used to be about “do I go to the hairdressers, or do I go to the pub and have a takeaway. Now it’s about prioritising feeding my children over feeding myself. That is simply not tenable in our society and there is absolute panic - and it has not even started yet”.

While governments continue to prioritise the interests of the profiteers from war and misery over the interests of the many, things can only get much worse. Capitalism will not change course unless compelled to do so - by political and economic pressure, including class struggle.

 

War in Ukraine, combined with Western sanctions against Russia, rising inflation and the effects of the pandemic and climate change on global economies, are widely predicted to “push hundreds of millions into poverty and lower nutrition, if the crisis continues”