March 2022

By David Wickham

The UN Conference on Climate Change, COP26, took place in Glasgow 31st October – 13th November 2021. What progress, if any, did it make?

SETTING THE SCENE

Climate change, or more accurately, global warming, is caused by the accumulation over time of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2) comprises 75% such gases. (1) The last 7 years have been the hottest on record (2) and 2021 saw a string of natural disasters attributable to global warming ranging from record-breaking heatwaves in Canada to forest fires in California and across the Mediterranean to unprecedented flooding in Germany and Belgium.

CO2 production is a natural process but today’s CO2 emissions are produced by the fossil economy which began in the mid-19th century when coal was introduced to power Britain’s cotton industry (3). Fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) generate 80% global energy (4) and are responsible for 89% C02 emissions (5).

The world’s temperature today is 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels. On current policies, according to Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the temperature increase will be 2.7°C higher than pre-industrial levels by the end of the century (6). Warming makes extreme weather events, such as those already mentioned, more likely to occur and with greater intensity. According the IPCC, a 1.5°C rise increases the risk of abnormal rainfall by 70%. Consequently, COP26 must be judged on action to replace fossil fuels.

GOOD COP -BAD COP?

The Glasgow summit was attended by the 168 signatory-countries to the 1994 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Its purpose was twofold:

-  to commit to emissions reduction targets consistent with the aim of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, a target agreed in Paris in 2015 and

- to focus particularly on the present decade because of the alarming trends identified in Paris.

CAT provides a helpful summary of the Glasgow agreement:

- if targets for 2030 alone are met, the increase reduces from 2.7°C to 2.4°C

- if all targets are met it reduces to 2.1°C

- if all targets, including net zero targets, long term strategies and nationally-determined contributions (NDCs) are met it reduces to 1.8°C

So, best case scenario, a 0.3°C shortfall from the target remains. And every 0.1°C counts.

One positive from Glasgow was the USA-China bilateral agreement committing “to meet the Paris 1.5°C target”. A second was the decision to reconvene in November 2022 in Cairo (COP 27) to make further efforts. Overall, however, CAT’s conclusion is that the 2030 targets are “totally inadequate and put achieving 1.5°C at risk” mainly because delegates failed to kick the fossil habit (7), with the final declaration committing to “phase-down” rather than ban coal. Western sources blamed this failure on China and India, who together are responsible for 35% CO2 emissions. Such finger-pointing conveniently ignores the fact that neither is responsible for today’s global warming. It was British, European and American capitalists who imposed the fossil economy on the rest of the world making today’s global warming “the rolling invasion of the past into the present” (8).

“That may be,” some might say, “but what’s past is past, we must act now”. True, but only if those responsible shoulder the financial responsibility for energy transition. Which they signally failed to do at Glasgow. Kicking the fossil habit will have to be paid for.There was anger that the developed countries did not deliver an annual $100 billion to finance decarbonisation in developing countries. Symbolically important, this sum probably falls far short of what will be required. (9)

Whatever the amount, much will have to come from taxation. Typically, carbon taxes hit the poorest hardest. Unsurprisingly, they are unpopular and allow populists like Australian Senator Matt Canavan to make decarbonisation the enemy of poverty because, “coal is good at getting people out of poverty”. Wealth taxes would be fairer. The World Inequality Report shows that the richest 10% of the world’s population is responsible for 50% of emissions and the poorest 50% for 12%. Carbon inequality reflects wealth inequality in a world where the richest 10% owns 76% global wealth (10).

TIME RUNNING OUT

Glasgow kept the 1.5°C commitment alive but the timescales for action are too slow. To be consistent with meeting the target, says CAT, emissions must be halved by 2030. However, Big Oil feels under no pressure to act: at the World Petroleum Conference, December 5 - 9, Darren Woods, ExxonMobil CEO said, “under most credible scenarios including net zero pathways, oil and natural gas will continue to play a significant role in meeting society’s needs”. (11)

Left alone, the vested interests of fossil capital will continue to block decarbonisation. State intervention is needed (12) and governments must be forced to act. To this end, attention must be focused specifically on the owners and supporters of fossil capital.

(1) Our World in Data

(2) Copernicus, the European Union’s Earth monitoring programme. Financial Times 10 January 2022

(3) Andreas Malm, Fossil Capital, Verso 2016, Who Lit This Fire? University of Chicago, 2016

(4) Earth 104 - Energy and the Environment, Pennsylvania State University

(5) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report 2018 cited in ClientEarth Report 11 November 2021

(5) Earth 104 - Energy and the Environment, Pennsylvania State University.

(6) Climate Action Tracker “Warming Projections Global Update” November 2021. CAT is an independent scientific consortium tracking climate change since 2009.

(7) CAT op. cit.

(8) A. Malm, Fossil Capital, p.10

(9) Mark Carney, ex-Bank of England Governor, now UN special envoy on climate change and finance, estimates $100 trillion “is the minimum amount….needed for the sustainable energy drive over the next three decades.” Financial Times 29 October 2021

(10) World Inequality Report 7 December 2021. See chapters 7 & 8 for analyses of Corporate and Wealth taxes. P Lysandrou, Commodity, Routledge Focus 2018, on the need for a Global Tax Authority.

(11) FT Energy Source 9 December 2021

(12) The French state nuclear programme of the 1950s & 1960s for example.

COP26 activists demand climate justice photo by Dean Calma/IAEA

It was British, European and American capitalists who imposed the fossil economy on the rest of the world making today’s global warming “the rolling invasion of the past into the present”

The World Inequality Report shows that the richest 10% of the world’s population is responsible for 50% of emissions and the poorest 50% for 12%.