by Alex Davidson

“The West has invested a huge amount of capital – political, economic and strategic – in the fight against Russia, and it has failed. Trump knows that and so he’s ending the war…” (Freddy Gray, The Spectator, 20 February 2025)

“…Zelenskyy’s bust-up with Trump was a minor episode in a superpower struggle for material resources and global technological dominance.” (Niall Ferguson and Nick Kumleben, The Spectator, 8 March 2025)

The Trump/Vance – Zelenskyy spat at the White House brought into public view the fact that the war in Ukraine is a US/NATO proxy war, that the US is in charge and that it will deal with Russia on its own.

The adjusted direction of US foreign policy on Ukraine reflects American weakness, the threat to its world hegemony, the development of a multi-polar world, the emergence of BRICS+ and the development of China as a super-power. The US, under Trump, is pivoting to deal with what it sees as its main threat, China. Trump, and much of the US ruling class, regard China as the main competitor of the US and therefore the biggest danger. This helps to explain the changing US position on Ukraine. The US wants to cut a deal with Russia, save US dollars in a lost Ukraine war, change its relationship with Russia and divide it from China.

Trump’s 90 minute telephone discussion with Putin, their agreement to begin normalising relations and following this the meeting of diplomats from both sides about re-opening embassies and consulates have indicated the US direction of travel. This has been met with a gnashing of teeth and bleatings from Europe and Ukraine that they should be at the negotiating table. These pathetic complaints about their US boss from the Europeans and Ukrainians has been accompanied by them increasing their Russophobia and warmongering.    

UKRAINE LOSING THE WAR 

“The West has invested a huge amount of capital – political, economic and strategic – in the fight against Russia, and it has failed. Trump knows that and so he’s ending the war: if that means insulting Volodymyr Zelensky, parroting Russian talking points and playing nice with Putin, so be it.” (1)

The US is clear: Ukraine is losing the war. “You have big problems… You have no cards”, Trump told Zelenskyy during the course of the White House spat. Trump’s plain speaking could not have been more clear. Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Think of it, a modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the US and ‘TRUMP,’ will never be able to settle.”  

Trump wants to end the proxy war as it has failed and is no longer in US interests to continue. The US proposal to Ukraine over its rare earth and mineral deposits is presented as the US getting its money back from the billions spent on the war and an investment for Ukraine. Zelenskyy wanted a security guarantee. The Minerals agreement wasn’t signed as planned and Zelenskyy was expelled from the White House in a humiliating fashion.

It has been made very clear that Ukraine’s application to join NATO will not happen. However, Zelenskyy and the EU/UK want to achieve US security guarantees by the back door. Starmer refers to it as the US acting as a ‘back stop’: an admission that the US is needed to prolong the war.

After Zelenskyy’s blunder in the White House the Europeans, led by the UK, have been desperately trying to patch things up with the US while ramping up their war rhetoric.

STARMER'S "COALITION OF THE WILLING"

Starmer’s emergency summit in London on 2 March, in which he announced the setting-up of a ‘Coalition of the Willing’ with France, and ‘boots on the ground and planes in the air’ has so far been met with a rather lukewarm response. Poland, which has the biggest land army in Europe outwith Ukraine and has been in the forefront of the warmongering, said no to sending troops to Ukraine. The Baltic states (with a combined population of some 6 million, about the same size as Scotland) were not invited to attend the summit. Mark Rutte, NATO secretary-general, told Zelenskyy to apologise to the US.

EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the proposal to set-up a European fund of €800 billion for Ukraine’s war effort and indicated that in order to do this the EU’s fiscal rules would be changed. Much of the money will be given as loans to individual countries to boost their so-called defence budgets. A lot of the money will be spent on buying armaments from the US. This will take time and will still not make up for the loss of US military support and intelligence. Of course, Trump welcomed the European pledges to increase their defence budgets. After all he has been calling for this for some time.

“Europeans make the mistake of regarding Trump as an overmighty would-be emperor. In fact, he is actuated by a nagging sense of weakness. A dealmaking president must either strike enough deals around the world to power and equip his country’s economy, or face an unacceptable level of dependence on China, the most powerful industrial and military foe the United States has ever faced…” (2)

Within hours of Starmer’s London summit the US announced a suspension of military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The Europeans grovelling and promises of spending more didn’t change the US position of withdrawal from Ukraine.

Eventually, and reluctantly, Zelenskyy said that what had happened at the White House meeting was a “regrettable incident” but still didn’t apologise.  This was later followed by another more conciliatory message that Ukraine was ready to sign the Minerals deal. Trump was getting his way.

Shortly after the White House argument, and while Zelenskyy was expressing regret, Trump’s envoys were in Ukraine discussing with opponents of Zelenskyy the issue of his replacement. 

TRUMP-ZELENSKYY BACK -STORY

Given the extensive media coverage of the White House spat one should not forget the back-story of Trump-Zelenskyy relations. Since 2014 the then vice-president’s (Joe Biden) son had been sitting on the board of Ukrainian energy company Burisma. The son, Hunter Biden, was earning around $1 million annually to advise a company in a sector about which he had zero expertise. Why did the company have Hunter Biden on its board? The answer is simple: so that the Biden name could bring contracts, grants and other support to Burisma.

In 2019 President Trump had a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The Democrats claimed that he had used the call to tell Zelenskyy that American aid to the country could be contingent on Ukraine helping to expose the Biden family’s financial dealings. Trump was impeached over the call but acquitted by the Senate. Many Republican supporters came to the view that Ukraine was a corrupt country, which had enriched and cooperated with Trump’s political opponents.

As an article by Freddy Gray Deputy Editor of The Spectator, which can hardly be called a Putin mouthpiece or puppet, has now admitted, “There’s no doubt that, in our (western political leaders and media) eagerness to champion the man in the military fatigues, we overlooked the more sordid aspects of his leadership. The Pandora papers showing his links to shady offshore bank accounts were forgotten about. His ties to deeply corrupt and double-dealing oligarchs…were brushed over. His ruthless suppression of Moscow-affiliated religious groups was dismissed as Kremlin ‘disinformation’…Western politicians, and military-industrial types who have made a lot of money from the war effort, have always known, deep down, that in supporting Ukraine against Putin they have covered up awkward truths. What really frightens them now is not necessarily Trump’s recklessness. It’s that the murkier realities of the Ukraine-Russia relationship and the West’s involvement in the conflict going back to 2014 and before, may soon come to light.” (3)

In the course of the US/NATO provoked, proxy war Zelenskyy became a western hero. He was called a 21^st century Churchill. He was fêted in European capitals, Hollywood and on the cover of Vogue magazine.

Elon Musk has suggested that Zelenskyy could be given immunity when he departs.

PANAMA 

The pivot to China by the US began as soon as the Trump administration took office.

Marco Rubio’s first trip abroad as Trump’s secretary of state was to Panama, where he threatened the Central American nation over its relations with China. The Trump administration demanded that the Panamanian government force the Hong Kong-based company, CK Hutchison Holdings, to sell its stake in the ports surrounding the canal.

Immediately after Rubio’s trip, Panama withdrew from China’s global infrastructure program, the Belt and Road Initiative. In an interview with Fox News on 26 February Rubio said, “And I’m very happy that, after our visit, I think the same day I was there, Panama became the first country in Latin America, in the Western Hemisphere, to get out of the Belt and Road initiative. And I think there will be more news coming up soon, with regards to Panama, all positive for America.” (4) The news that followed was that a Blackrock consortium had bought ports on the Panama Canal from the Hong Kong owner, CK Hutchison. Blackrock is an American transnational investment company. It is the world’s largest investment manager with $11.5 trillion in assets. This development was welcomed by Trump in his State of the Union address in March.

In the Fox News interview Rubio said, “The Communist Party of China, that leads the PRC (Peoples Republic of China), is the most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted. They have elements that the Soviet Union never possessed. They are a technological adversary and competitor, an industrial competitor, an economic competitor, a geopolitical competitor, a scientific competitor now — in every realm.”

After his trip to Panama, Rubio then travelled to El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic for engagements with senior officials and business leaders to “promote regional cooperation on our core, shared interests” including “countering China.” as stated in the official press statement of the visit issued by the US State Department. (5)

GREENLAND

The countering of China explains Trump’s unsubtle public utterances about taking over Greenland. In his March 2025 State of the Union speech Trump said, “We need Greenland for national security and even international security, and we’re working with everybody involved to try and get it… and I think we’re going to get it. One way or the other, we’re going to get it…It’s…very, very important for military security.” (6)

In the 1990s, the world was overwhelmingly dominated by the United States, which could impose its will on most countries. The overthrow of the Soviet Union and its socialist allies meant there was no longer a counterbalance to US hegemony. However, the world has changed and the threat to US hegemony has led the Trump administration to conclude that the US must re-assert its imperial sphere of influence and deal with China as its biggest problem.

Rubio spelled out why the US wants to own and control Greenland: “They (the Chinese) do not have an Arctic presence, so they need to be able to have somewhere that they can stage from. And it is completely realistic to believe that the Chinese will eventually… try to do in Greenland what they have done at the Panama Canal and in other places, and that is install facilities that give them access to the Arctic with the cover of a Chinese company but that in reality serve a dual purpose: that in a moment of conflict, they could send naval vessels to that facility and operate from there. And that is completely unacceptable to the national security of the world and to the United States.” (7)

Trump has appointed Ken Howery as his Ambassador to Denmark and Greenland. Howery is one of the “PayPal Mafia”. (8) He was a co-founder of PayPal in 1999 along with Peter Thiel and Elon Musk. After eBay bought PayPal he stayed on as Director of Corporate Development. He was appointed as Ambassador to Sweden (2019-2021) under Trump’s first presidential term. He has now been appointed Ambassador to Denmark by Trump in his second term.

In his post on Truth Social Trump wrote, “…For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the world, the United States of America feels the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity. Ken will do a wonderful job in representing the interests of the United States…” (9)

CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL

The US withdrawal from the West’s proxy war against Russia and its pivot to deal with China as the greater threat to its hegemony reflects the weakened position of imperialism. The Europeans, it would appear, do not understand and certainly do not want to accept their reduced power and role in the world.

The American/Ukrainian proposal for an immediate ceasefire reflected the weak position of Ukraine on the battlefield. The proposal was also disingenuous. Russia, understandably does not trust the West after it broke the previous Minsk and Istanbul Agreements, admitted to by Germany and France as a way of giving time to Ukraine to further prepare militarily. Hence Putin’s response with a series of logical questions in response to the ceasefire proposal. Russia, which holds the upper hand in the war, is understandably unwilling to sacrifice its momentum and give time to the Europeans to re-arm Ukraine. It also wants the root causes of the war to be addressed so that a lasting peace can be secured. The Europeans, led by the British, want the ceasefire immediately so that they can freeze the situation whilst preparing to prolong the war. They are not interested in addressing Russia’s security concerns nor securing a more permanent peace.

Sir Keir Starmer may hope that his grandstanding and warmongering over Ukraine could rescue his Premiership in the way that Mrs Thatcher’s Falklands war worked for her. However, these are different times and Ukraine is nothing like the Falklands (Malvinas).

 

(1) Freddy Gray, “The cruellest thing about Trump v Zelenskyy? Trump is right”, The Spectator, 20 February 2025.

(2) Niall Ferguson and Nick Kumleben,“Dirty Deal: what Trump really wants from Ukraine’s natural resources”, The Spectator, 8 March 2025.

(3) Freddy Gray, “The cruellest thing about Trump v Zelenskyy? Trump is right”, The Spectator, 20 February 2025.

(4) Marco Rubio interview with Mark Kilmeade, Fox News, 26 February 2025. https://www.state.gov/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-with-brian-kilmeade-of-fox-news/

(5) Press Statement, US State Department, 31 January 2025. https://www.state.gov/secretary-rubios-travel-to-panama-el-salvador-costa-rica-guatemala-and-the-dominican-republic/

(6) Donald J Trump, State of the Union Address, 4 March 2025.

(7) Marco Rubio interview with Mark Kilmeade, Fox News, 26 February 2025.

(8) The ‘PayPal Mafia’ is a term describing those who founded PayPal and who, with associates, went on to found additional tech companies in Silicon Valley such as Tesla, OpenAI, SpaceX, LinkedIn, YouTube, Reddit, Yelp and Palantir. The term was coined and then publicised by Fortune magazine in 2007.

(9) Donald J Trump, Truth Social, President-elect Trump’s announcement of nomination of Ken Howery as Ambassador to Denmark, 22 December 2024.

 

Zelensky-Trump confrontation in the White House. Photo by White House

The US withdrawal from the West’s proxy war against Russia and its pivot to deal with China as the greater threat to its hegemony reflects the weakened position of imperialism. The Europeans, it would appear, do not understand and certainly do not want to accept their reduced power and role in the world.

Keir Starmer addresses his Ukraine summit of the not very willing. Photo by Lauren Hurley