Articles
Saturday, October 8, 2022
Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was a deliberate provocation to China, designed to ramp up tensions as prelude to a possible war. This visit was extremely dangerous as the United States heads towards unilaterally ripping up the internationally agreed “One China” principle which recognises that Taiwan is part of China.
Wednesday, October 5, 2022
The US is experiencing resistance from the developing world to its aggressive policies on China. The number of countries giving diplomatic recognition to Taiwan has declined form 28 in 2008 to 13 now. The latest to change its affiliation is the Solomon Islands which has recently concluded a range of agreements with China. It is strategically important in the Pacific area and its closer ties with China have led to threats against it from Australia and the USA.
Sunday, October 2, 2022
Whilst much of the focus is currently on the war in Ukraine the West has also been active in other former Soviet Republics surrounding Russia aiming the woo some and foment regime change in others. there are also those in the West who advocate for the break up of Russia.
Sunday, March 27, 2022
The biggest target the US has in its sights is China. There are similarities between the stand off with Russia over Ukraine and the attempt by the US to manufacture a crisis over Taiwan. Here too it has ignored historic agreements, increased tensions through talking up threats of war, war-planning and stationing military forces in the region. Here too both geopolitical and economic factors are at work. The US wants to prevent a peaceful reunification of China, as a separate Taiwan gives it strategic power in the Asia Pacific region. And of course, Taiwan also has a highly advanced semiconductor sector which it does not want China to get access to.
Tuesday, November 30, 2021
The United States’ world role under Biden has been different from Donald Trump only in that has been more effective in asserting US dominance, and bullying other countries. However, it is also causing consternation among US allies which are increasingly unhappy about its actions.
The withdrawal from Afghanistan was a shock. Previously Trump and Obama had talked about “ending the forever wars” and “pivoting to Asia”, but they had never taken the final step of pulling out of Afghanistan. However, it was not just that Biden did it, but the manner of the departure – hurried and without consultation – that bothered allies.
There were huge ramifications arising from this, not only making allies wary, but also changing the power relationships in the region and beyond, involving China, Russia, Pakistan, Turkey, India and others. Although the United States remains the world’s preeminent power it has damaged its reputation and emboldened voices among US allies who want their nations to be less dependent on an unreliable partner. This is particularly evident in the European Union with strengthened calls from many leading politicians, like Emmanuel Macron, for EU “strategic autonomy”.
Monday, November 29, 2021
When the United States, Britain and Australia formed the AUKUS pact tensions were ramped up further with allies. The move enraged France as it meant Australia cancelling its order for new French submarines in favour of buying US nuclear powered ones instead. It is not just this further snub which has implications, AUKUS is a new alliance among several which are being orientated towards confrontation with China. This is a significant escalation of the threat to peace in the Asia/Pacific region and it is particularly concerning that the US is transferring nuclear technology to Australia as part of the submarine deal.
The United States’ strategic priority is now pushing back China. To that end it is building up its military alliances and power in the Asia/Pacific. It is also reorienting the alliances it leads, like NATO, towards China and corralling its allies into following its hostile approach. It has had success at this but relations are increasingly strained with countries which take a different view of how to deal with China (and it should be said Russia), like Germany. This has been exacerbated by the US’ contemptuous treatment of them over Afghanistan and AUKUS.
Thursday, November 25, 2021
Soviet military assistance was sent to Afghanistan in 1979 to help defend the progressive and democratic government against Islamic fundamentalist terrorists. This is well known, as is its outcome - the withdrawal of the Soviets, final defeat of the government and the take over by the Taliban. What is less well known are the historic links between the young Soviet Union and the newly formed Afghan state, which involved aid and cooperation over decades. Neither are the achievements of the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan, overthrown by the Taliban, which promoted the rights of women and girls, workers and farmers.
By contrast the West and the USA supported the terrorists facilitating the seizure of power by the Taliban. They wreaked further destruction and massive loss of life through their invasion. And now the US has withdrawn and the Taliban are back in power again.
Thursday, February 11, 2021
One of the hallmarks of this increasingly dangerous world has been the growing hostility of the US towards China as it becomes more powerful and assertive. To understand this conflict it is necessary to also understand China's development since its revolution and the aspiration that the United States had to bring it into its orbit as a capitalist economy serving US economic interests. When it became clear that China would not follow the path prescribed for it by the US and was seeking to develop its own direction, including nurturing hi-tech industries, the US responded quickly to try to halt this. These moves began in earnest under President Obama and were continued by Donald Trump. President Biden will not depart from this path but will seek to collaborate more with US allies, alienated by Trump’s approach, to put pressure on China. The question is whether or not China can overcome attempts to isolate it and the barriers created by sanctions designed to strangle the development of its hi-tech industries.