by Pat Turnbull

UKRAINE - PROSPECTS FOR PEACE? 

In the June issue of German journal RotFuchs, retired Colonel Gerhard Giese (National People’s Army, German Democratic Republic) writes about the conflict in Ukraine. He sees it as “a military conflict, chiefly on the territory of Ukraine, initiated by the West, which, as a result of the military confrontation between Ukraine, militarily equipped by the West, and Russia, has developed from a special operation by the Russian Federation (RF) with the goal of demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine into a proxy war of the USA and NATO against Russia.” In the view of Gerhard Giese, the conflict has developed “ever more directly the character of a world-wide social-systemic war (unilateralism versus multipolarity) between the USA (NATO) and Russia. The West and Ukraine, as claimed by neocon John Bolton recently in the Wall Street Journal, are aiming for a total victory over Russia, which is intended to first of all weaken the country and then break it up, Yugoslavia-fashion.”

But the ‘spring offensive’ has not gone to plan: “The chief task of the Russian airforce is to keep the weapons delivered by the west far from the front. The SU-35 has been mostly kept back for a direct NATO attack but has been very effective in shooting down Ukrainian planes. The SU-35 is so good that it can successfully fight Western F-15 and F-16s. The SU-57 is going into production.”

Gerhard Giese asks: “Are there chances for peace negotiations? We can assume that China, which has a strong interest in globalised production and delivery chains, will actively seek a peaceful solution in the NATO-RF war.” Such efforts have already begun: “According to the internet site german-foreign-policy.com, the USA and some European countries accept China as a negotiator in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, which could take place after the offensive (in other words in autumn 2023). Reasons given for the changed attitude are the spiralling costs of the conflict, the dwindling support of the US population for the war in Ukraine and the presidential elections in 2024, which Biden wants to win again.” (1)

This ‘changed attitude’ is reflected more recently in an article of 19^th August by Sky News’s military analyst, Sean Bell. He begins: “Ukraine’s much-anticipated spring counteroffensive is now in its tenth week, with limited evidence of any significant breakthrough of the formidable Russian defences…Ukraine started its spring offensive in early June, but despite some ferocious fighting the Russian fortifications still appear largely intact. Although casualty figures are always hard to verify, it is evident that this latest phase of the battle has proven highly attritional, and Ukraine’s offensive would expect to suffer significantly higher casualties, up to three times as many as its enemy. Ammunition and weapons are being consumed at a huge rate…Drone attacks on Moscow, Black Sea Fleet vessels, ammunition dumps and small communities liberated…are a sideshow to the main event.”

Sean Bell assesses the reaction in the west: “Behind the scenes, Western leaders are starting to review options. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s chief of staff suggested in a recent interview that Ukraine might need to cede territory to find a lasting peace. Although he later apologised, this comment likely reflected a growing concern among Western leaders that by continuing to support Ukraine they become complicit in perpetuating this brutal – yet static – conflict… Weapons stockpiles are diminishing and there are limited reserves left to continue supporting Ukraine, especially given conflicting domestic priorities… Notwithstanding the public show of NATO and Western unity in support of Ukraine, behind the scenes there is growing concern about how to draw this conflict to an end.” (2)

Can progressive forces in the West utilise this concern to push for a negotiated end to this conflict which has cost so many Ukrainian and Russian lives and which still endangers the peace of the whole world? The German initiative Aufstehen (Stand Up) issued a call for peace in advance of Anti-War Day 2023 – 1^st September, remembering “the greatest human catastrophe – the Second World War” and the vow of the survivors “Never again Fascism, never again War!”. Aufstehen said, “The traffic light government [so-called because it is a coalition of the Social Democratic Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Greens] has forgotten this lesson, this vow, and is stoking up the war further by sanctioning the delivery of cluster bombs by the USA and the delivery of ever more weapons, going so far as to consider the delivery of cruise missiles. Germany is party to this war and the population is supposed to put up with ever more ‘sacrifices’ under the disgraceful and wrong slogan ‘Freeze for Peace’. The only winners are the weapons firms, as well as the US fracking industry, and hedge funds like BlackRock and co.

“In the past weeks it was the 78^th anniversary of the terrible atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. On the 6^th and 9^th of August 1945, US-American bombers dropped the atomic bombs on Japan, the first and to date only time that a nation has deployed this annihilating force against another country – its civilian population – an immense war crime. In Nagasaki alone 70,000 people were killed directly and a further 75,000 wounded; altogether more than 200,000 people died of the direct and indirect results…. Atomic bombs are the existential challenge for all humanity, because they could destroy the earth and all life. Despite this danger the nuclear threat is too seldom discussed in public.

“And what does the German government do? It ignores international law, which forbids the development, production, testing, acquisition and deployment of nuclear weapons, refuses to join the nuclear weapons ban treaty, and adheres to the ‘nuclear participation by the Bundeswehr with US-atomic bombs’. It attempts to excuse these dangerous errors with the lying cover of ‘morality’.  We demand that the government stop the hypocritical moralising and end the policy of escalation. Back to the policy of détente with Russia, dialogue with respect for each other’s interests and an end to sanctions which chiefly harm ourselves. There must be security guarantees for Ukraine AND for Russia.”

BRICS EXPANDS 

Meanwhile in the developing multipolar world, Russia and China are at the heart of a range of organisations which are building a cooperative alternative to the aggressive approaches steered by the US, NATO and the EU. One of these is BRICS. The 15^th BRICS summit took place from 22^nd to 24^th August in South Africa, bringing together the leaders of the world’s leading emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. More than 20 nations have expressed an interest in joining BRICS and six new members were invited to join at the summit. These were Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. This will more than double the number of members in the bloc. President of Brazil, Lula da Silva noted that, with the new additions, the bloc will represent 46% of the world’s population and even more of its economic output.

The president of the BRICS New Development Bank, Dilma Rousseff, former president of Brazil, emphasised the purpose of the Bank is to help member countries develop infrastructure and education and that it would be a good partner in Africa. She also recognised the challenge and importance of “the expansion of payment mechanisms, notably local currencies and other financial instruments that may eventually be created in order to build a new, more multilateral and inclusive financial system.”

Prior to the summit, in June, the BRICS Ministers of Foreign Affairs and International Relations met in Cape Town. Their joint statement issued on 1^st June indicates why this alliance is gaining popularity in competition with the coercive set-ups of the imperialist nations. The Ministers “reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening the framework of BRICS cooperation under the three pillars of political and security, economic and financial, and cultural and people-to-people cooperation, upholding the BRICS spirit and featuring mutual respect and understanding, equality, solidarity, openness, inclusiveness, and consensus.” 

They, “welcomed the readmission of the Syrian Arab Republic to the League of Arab States on 7 May 2023.” Their view on sanctions, “The Ministers expressed concern about the use of unilateral coercive measures, which are incompatible with the principles of the Charter of the UN and produce negative effects notably in the developing world.”

The Friends of BRICS Foreign Ministers meeting followed on June 2^nd. Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Comoros, Gabon, and Kazakhstan all sent representatives, and Egypt, Argentina, Bangladesh, Guinea-Bissau and Indonesia participated virtually.

The next BRICS summit in 2024 will be held in Kazan in Russia.

AFRICA REJECTS WESTERN CONTROL 

Africa is also the centre of growing opposition to the coercive policies and control of the USA and the former colonial powers.  The latest country to rebel at the time of writing is Niger. Pro-Western President Mohamed Bazoum was ousted in a coup, led by General Abdourahmane Tchiani, on July 26^th. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) initially threatened to intervene militarily, giving the coup leaders a seven-day deadline to restore Bazoum, a deadline which came and went. French broadcaster RFI – France is the former colonial power – said the bloc was mustering about 25,000 troops, mostly from Nigeria and Senegal. However, ECOWAS members Chad and Guinea opposed both sanctions on Niger and military deployment. The military governments in Burkina Faso and Mali said they would regard any move against Niger as a declaration of war against themselves. Niger has accused ECOWAS of acting as a proxy for France, which has bases and 1,500 soldiers in Niger. Niger’s uranium mines provide a substantial amount of the fuel for France’s nuclear reactors. (3) 

Niger and its neighbours have been severely affected by terrorist activities spreading from Libya, which was destroyed by NATO in 2011. Writing in March this year, Moussa Ibrahim, who in 2011 was spokesperson of the Libyan Government and Minister of Media, while exposing the lies told by the Western media to justify the destruction of his country, reminds us of why it really happened: “The actual ‘crimes’ of the Libyan revolutionary Government, however, were real and consequential: Gaddafi’s Libya was re-shaping the political, economic and cultural context of the African continent in radical and independent ways not seen since the nominal de-colonization of African countries in the 1950s and 1960s.

“On September 9^th, 1999, under the leadership of Gaddafi, the establishment of the African Union was announced in his birthplace, the coastal town of Sirte (the very city in which he would fight his last battle against NATO in 2011). Gaddafi then announced the start of a major revolutionary project for the plundered and exploited continent: building pan-African economic, security and communication institutions with the aim of gaining complete and true independence from the control of the West. The most consequential of these institutions were the African Central Bank, the African Golden Dinar, the African Gold Reserve, the African Security Council, the Unified African Army, the African Parliament, the African Organisation for Natural Resources, the African Communications Network and the African Common Market.” (4) Perhaps Colonel Gaddafi’s dreams are coming closer.

1. Von einer Spezialoperation zum NATO-RF Krieg, Oberst a.d. Gerhard Giese, RotFuchs, June 2023.
2. Ukraine war: Zelensky still resolute – but West wobbles as spring counteroffensive stalls, Sean Bell, military analyst, Sky News, 19/8/23.
3. Niger’s neighbours set “D-Day” for intervention, Azerbaycan24, 19/8/23
4. NATO bombed Libya to ‘protect civilians’ 12 years ago. This led to thousands of deaths and a country in ruins, Moussa Ibrahim, Azerbaycan24 18/3/23

 

Can progressive forces in the West utilise this concern to push for a negotiated end to this conflict which has cost so many Ukrainian and Russian lives and which still endangers the peace of the whole world?

Dilma Rousseff President of the BRICS New Development Bank photo by Dilma Rousseff