by Frieda Park

The Tory Party’s problems have not disappeared with Rishi Sunak’s leadership. He doesn’t get the same hysterical coverage that Jeremy Corbyn got as leader of the Labour Party when he faced a revolt among his right wing MPs but that doesn’t diminish the difficulties that the Tory Party faces.

Some individual Tory MPs, like the Labour traitors who formed Change UK to undermine Corbyn, are making themselves sacrificial lambs and are in the process damaging the Party. This has led to three MPs resigning, including the former leader, Boris Johnson - two resulting by-elections have already happened. Labour overturned a massive majority to win Selby and Ainsty from the Tories but failed to win Johnson’s former seat. This was widely blamed on the Labour London Mayor’s Ultra Low Emission Scheme and its impact on car owners and small businesses. That will not be repeated across the country. A further by-election caused by the resignation of a Tory who was suspended from the Party was a win for the Lib Dems again overturning a huge Tory majority.

Whatever Nadine Dorries, Boris Johnson and others might hope for after a Tory defeat at the next general election, the establishment has been intent on trying to steady the ship and will not want a return to the erratic governments of Truss and Johnson. Furthermore, they want the Tory Party to survive and be reformed, turning it back towards being pro-EU. Even with Johnson sidelined for now, they have a long and difficult road to travel. Sunak might not be to Dorries’s taste but he is as much a supporter of Brexit as his immediate predecessors in Downing St.

STARMER'S FAULTY STRATEGY 

Given the mess the Tories are in and the hardships being endured by the people of Britian, Starmer looks a shoo in for prime minister at the next election – at present polls are giving him a landslide. A period of Labour in power would certainly allow Britian to move back closer to the EU, something fervently hoped for in the quality capitalist press like the Financial Times.

Though there is widespread support for Labour, just how strong is that support and how susceptible might it be to erosion? Starmer is currently very much reliant on the support of the press but that cannot be taken for granted if they start to boost Ed Davey and give out a message that Sunak is not such a bad chap. It is to be expected that we will see the Lib Dems being promoted again now that sufficient time has passed since their policy betrayals when in coalition with the Tories under David Cameron and Nick Clegg. A Labour-Lib Dem government would suit the establishment better than a landslide Labour government.

But the media is not the only thing that should worry Starmer. The Tories have easy attack lines against him for his numerous policy U turns, effectively adopting their policies, and for a lack of actual policies of his own. It is not just the left in Labour that is unhappy with the dramatic rightward lurch, the purging of members and exclusion of credible candidates from selection shortlists. Sections of the right, including within the trade unions are also unhappy. But despite the disquiet there is also a sense that no one wants to rock the boat before a general election. Party members, however, may be somewhat demotivated which will not help campaigning.

The massive poll leads for Labour do not so much reflect huge enthusiasm for Starmer, as a profound disenchantment with the Tories. His personal polling isn’t great which also leaves him vulnerable. On 14^th August a YouGov poll found that 49% of voters thought he was doing badly as Labour leader and only 30% thought he was doing well. He doesn’t however fare quite as badly as Rishi Sunak where 60 % thought he was doing badly as Prime Minister and 27% thought he was doing well.

Labour also needs to win back seats in Scotland to secure a majority Labour government.  The dominant Scottish National Party is also in the middle of huge meltdown and the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by election will be a crucial test of whether their vote can hold up. From dismal performances in recent years, Labour is now catching up with the SNP in opinion polls.

A failure to inspire voters to turn out may mean that they don’t rush to the polls on election day, especially if they think Labour is going to win anyway. So Starmer’s strategy could begin to crack if the media shifts its stance and if the general public sees no particular reason to go out and vote Labour. He will in all likelihood win the next general election, but perhaps not by the crushing margins currently being predicted.

Although the electorate may not have high hopes of a Labour government, even the modest hopes they have may be dashed by the total lack of ambition and rightward charge by Starmer’s team. The comparison is often made with New Labour, but Starmer will be inheriting a much worse economic situation than Tony Blair did. If he continues on his uninspiring way, he would be extremely lucky to survive another election.

TRADE UNIONS BATTLE ON 

Away from electoral considerations the unions battle on to try to defend their members from the devastating attacks on their living standards and the destruction of public services. But the Tories continue to turn a deaf ear, planning to win a war of attrition and only giving minor concessions, if any at all. Whatever else is happening, support for workers in struggle should be a top priority.

 

Starmer is currently very much reliant on the support of the press but that cannot be taken for granted if they start to boost Ed Davey and give out a message that Sunak is not such a bad chap.