by Arnold Schoelzel, Editor of RotFuchs

What shape is German imperialism in today? An imperialism that twice dared to reach for world power and thus triggered two world wars. With the annexation of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) in 1990, this larger state has expanded its old position as an economic and political heavyweight in Western Europe and has been taking energetic steps within NATO for several years to play a greater role militarily as well. It is participating in NATO's expansion into the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

FEDERAL REPUBLIC RENEGES ON PEACE

From the beginning, it has not adhered to the so-called Two-Plus-Four Treaty, which was concluded in 1990 in place of a peace treaty between the four Allies and the two German states (1). The term "peace treaty" was avoided for a reason. This German state wanted to avoid reparation claims from the ranks of the 65 states that had stood against Germany in the Second World War. This concerned Greece and Poland in particular as early as 1990. Add to that what a former foreign policy official of the GDR said to me earlier this year, "Imperialist Germany has not honoured one treaty with Russia or the Soviet Union." That is also true of this treaty. Deceptions were - the assurances to respect Soviet security interests and not to expand NATO. The fact that NATO did not also dissolve after the dissolution of the Warsaw Treaty should have given rise to suspicion even then.

Crucial, however, was the provision in Article 2 of the Two-plus-Four Treaty, "The Governments of the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic reaffirm their declarations that only peace will emanate from German soil."

This was trampled on even during the ratification process. The Soviet instrument of ratification was deposited in Bonn on 15 March, bringing the treaty into force. By then, the German government was already participating in the war of aggression against Iraq, operation Desert Storm, which the USA and its allies had unleashed on 17^th January 1990 with fistfuls of lies such as: "Iraqis ripping babies out of incubators in Kuwait". Germany was providing troop contingents in Turkey. Finally, on 18 March 1991, Finance Minister Theo Waigel landed in Washington and, with a triumphant gesture, handed over a cheque for DM 16.9 billion, which covered an estimated 15% to 20% of the costs of Desert Storm.

GERMANY'S WARS 

Germany’s leading participation in the current war against Russia is the temporary end of a chain that began back then: Iraq in 1991, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq again, Mali, the rearmament of Ukraine since 2014 and now the war against Russia are some links in this chain. It began with lies and breach of contract - there is no end in sight. These are wars that were only made possible by the annexation of the GDR. Young people regularly demonstrate here, most recently on the so-called Day of German Unity on 3 October 2023 in Leipzig, with a very long banner stretching across entire squares, "This border was lifted so that we can go to war together again." The term "turn of the times" (Zeitenwende), with which Chancellor Olaf Scholz introduced a new phase of militarisation and an increased level of armaments on 27 February 2022, means a stepping up of war against Russia, participation in the preparation of war against China and struggle for a world order dominated by the global West.

The world is developing, but Germany is in reverse gear. Unfortunately, the largest German trade unions largely support this course. They are effectively failing as the most important pillars of the peace movement. The congress of the Metalworkers' Union, one of the largest trade unions in the world with 2.3 million members, has just ended. The same can be said about it as about the congress of the service sector union Verdi in September. The congress resolutions on the peace question represent a partial break with the peace stance achieved so far by the trade union movement. They advocate arms deliveries to Ukraine and soften the rejection of the special arms programme of €100 billion announced by Scholz on 27 February 2022, as well as the rejection of the NATO target of spending at least two per cent of the gross domestic product on war and rearmament. The resolutions document the relative integration of the German workers' and trade union movement in the NATO and rearmament course, and in this course passing on the burden of war and crisis to the working class. Only slightly more than 20% of the delegates voted against the motions of the trade union leaders.

For us in the Red Fox (RotFuchs), the results show how big our task is to push back this integration. We see this as our main political task as communists and socialists. It is good that the networking of the peace forces has increased. What is particularly bad is that the war and rearmament course of the rulers had a lot of support, especially among young delegates.

The danger is very real that this war will escalate. Added to this is now Israel's war in Gaza, for which the same is true. The prospects are bleak and - even if there is not military escalation - one thing is certain, poverty and drastic social cutbacks will increase for the preservation of the hegemony of imperialism and for the great power dreams of the German monopoly bourgeoisie on a scale hitherto unknown in the history of the Federal Republic.

PRESSURE ON IMPERIALISM 

But we also say that it is uncertain whether imperialism will succeed in maintaining its hegemony militarily. Economically, it is outnumbered and politically and ideologically, it is under tremendous pressure on a global scale. The meeting of Xi Jinping and Joseph Biden in November 2023 provided a little breathing space. The mere fact that this meeting took place means that we are witnessing changes in the balance of power in the world that ultimately endanger the established imperialist dominance and thus also affect German imperialism.

For this is not only about the possible loss of hegemony of US imperialism, but also that of the entire NATO camp. This makes it even more important for anti-imperialist forces to try to find differences in this camp. These differences can only be found in economic and political interests. Probably, they will also depend on the military balance of forces. In this context, the fact that currently only Russia has operational hypersonic weapons is, in my view, an important determinant.

Within imperialism, a very complicated development of the EU and Germany is taking place. The strategy of the leading fraction of German monopoly capital is to maintain with all its might supremacy in the EU and at the same time to subordinate itself consciously with the EU to hegemonic US imperialism and its strategy against Russia and China.

From this follows the danger of war, which is much greater than ever before in the history of the Federal Republic. From this also follows the enormous increase in attacks on the social rights of working people. Both objectives call for calm on the home front, from this follows the politics of division and repression for many and bribery only for the smallest groups. In Berlin, most demonstrations for solidarity with Palestine are currently banned - this is a new experience. German capital and its media are publicly discussing new restrictions on the right to strike.

ATTACKS ON LIVING STANDARDS 

We assume that the ruling social democracy used its influence in the wage settlements this year, pointing out that in times of war, unrest on the home front has its limits. If we take stock of this year's wage rounds at the post office, the railways and in parts of the public service, we must unfortunately say that the trade union movement has inadequately countered the attacks of the rulers and the ongoing mass impoverishment. We predict that impoverishment will take on a new quality in Germany in the next few years - parts of the working class, also parts of the middle classes and above all many pensioners, who today do not expect to be affected, will be hit massively. As an example, I would like to cite a newspaper report: A woman living in a municipal nursing home in Essen received a notice that her own contribution would increase by a good €972 per month to €3,570. Her daughter is quoted as saying: "Her entire pension will go towards this, and she will have to contribute an additional €2,000 a month from her life savings.” Reports like this are becoming more frequent.

The trade union and labour movement still seem to assume that an alleged class compromise will continue. This is also shown by the resolutions of the trade union congresses mentioned above. However, this alleged class compromise has ended with the "turn of the times" speech by Olaf Scholz. The so-called debt brake, i.e. the limitation of state borrowing, high armaments spending, inflation and NATO's two per cent target make the class compromise impossible. A comrade has calculated that the forecasts for the development of the gross domestic product and the consumption of the funds from the €100 billion special debt for the army in combination with the two per cent target will result in an arms budget of over €100 billion, which will then become completely relevant to the budget in 2026 and 2027. Just a few years ago, the German arms budget was one third of that. This means that the drastic cuts that took place in youth, health and education during this year's budget discussions in the Bundestag are only a prelude.

In Germany, the nationwide provision of hospital services is currently being dismantled and many hospitals are being forced to close. The ruling coalition had announced a basic child allowance as its most important social project. All state benefits for children were to be combined in this scheme. In fact, there will be no such basic security. Up to twelve billion euros would have had to be made available for it in the national budget, but the result is two billion.

Instead, there is the massive subsidising of energy for corporations, which will additionally burden the budget. Germany has almost completely cut off energy supplies from Russia and now has to buy expensive liquefied gas obtained by fracking, mainly from the USA. Energy is more expensive than ever before. In Germany, therefore, a creeping de-industrialisation is taking place, because many energy-intensive industries, for example chemicals, glass, ceramics or aluminium, are ceasing production or going to countries where energy is offered more cheaply. From our point of view, this is not only about national interests, but also about ownership, expropriation and socialisation. In short, only expropriation and democratic control can help against capital flight.

THREAT FROM THE RIGHT 

These are all factors that have contributed to the political development of the right. In the state elections on 8 October 2023, conservative, right-wing parties and fascists such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) received two thirds of all votes in Bavaria, and a good half in Hessen.

However, we know that fascism does not come from the fascists, but is an option and result of the policies of the ruling class under imperialism. The rise of such forces is a phenomenon, but not the essence of reactionary development.

Similar to Italy and other European countries, we in Germany are experiencing a rapid loss of the ability of the established parties to hold together. In the media, there is sometimes talk of the dissolution of the previous party system. The AfD is filling this gap with its social and national demagogy. I quote the former trade union chairwoman Ursula Engelen-Kefer of the Sozialverband Deutschland (SoVD), "In surveys, many confirm that they vote for the AfD mainly to teach the government a lesson. Political promises were made that are not being kept. Many are worried about no longer being seen and being marginalised."

The AfD is used by the ruling class to prevent the opposition to the war and austerity policies of the traffic light and the CDU from moving to the left, even becoming fundamental, i.e. anti-capitalist. This succeeds because the Left Party, Die Linke (PDL), has departed from the left-liberal milieu. And it succeeds because the DKP is too small and too weak.

The current political situation in Germany is therefore quite comfortable for the ruling class. The formerly left-wing alternative party, Die Linke, could be integrated into the political system and the protest potential is absorbed by the pseudo-alternative AfD in a system-stabilising way. The AfD's main tool is social and peace demagogy combined with racism and nationalism. The AfD officially advocates peace with Russia and has great success with this, but at the same time it also advocates strengthening the Bundeswehr and NATO. In votes in the Bundestag on social policy, it shows itself to be an ordinary neoliberal party. It is an "FDP with a pickelhaube". (2)

An association, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht), was founded in Berlin on 26 September 2023, which intends to found a party in January 2024 to run in the elections for the EU Parliament. I am sceptical whether this party will succeed. Her political programme consists of a mixture of the so-called social market economy, demands for social justice and peace with Russia. The bourgeois media claim that this party could attract AfD voters. That may be so at the beginning. In the long run, I am sceptical.

DEFENDING DEMOCRACY 

We know from German history how important the preservation of bourgeois democracy is for the workers' and democratic movement. At the same time, monopoly capital is constantly pushing for the dismantling of social and democratic rights, thus undermining bourgeois democracy. Therefore, we defend social and democratic rights against the attacks of the monopolies, both in fascist and “democratic" guise. In this sense, for example, the German Communist Party filed a constitutional complaint against the tightening of paragraph 130 of the penal code last November. This concerns an amendment to this paragraph which, with a woolly formulation, makes dissenting opinions on the Ukraine war punishable as approval of wars of aggression. There have already been court cases and convictions on the basis of this and the equally tightened paragraph 140 of the Criminal Code. These are attacks on the rights of opponents of the war and NATO strategy.

We stand for a policy oriented towards the interests of the majority of the population, for a policy of peace, disarmament, international development, the rejection of international relations of oppression and exploitation, the equal treatment of nations and diplomacy, and the right granted to all peoples to be able to decide for themselves the path of their nations. We demand such a policy and are at the same time aware that its realisation in a highly developed imperialist country is an illusion as long as the working class in alliance with other non-monopolist layers is not able to keep monopoly capital in check.

CAPITAL'S STRATEGIC INTERESTS 

Strategically, German monopoly capital is working in three fields to challenge the USA for the role of supremacy: Arming Germany for independent war capability, energy sovereignty i.e. independence from fossil fuels, and digital sovereignty i.e. independence with regard to the most modern productive forces.

A key means to this end is German domination of the EU. The costs are passed on to all non-monopolist classes and strata, and domination is secured by means of the closed home front and reactionary state restructuring. Following this dominant line of monopoly capital, "German interests" are now defended not only in the Hindu Kush, i.e. in Afghanistan, but also in Ukraine and worldwide. The leading government party the SPD announced at its party conference in December 2023 where the journey should take us: "As long as nothing fundamentally changes in Russia, Europe's security will have to be organised in front of Russia," is the new insight. The former GDR state secretary and current peace activist Petra Erler commented on this sentence: “So something has to change fundamentally in Russia. We would like to know more precisely what is to change there and, above all, how.”

In my view the SPD is now offering to manage the internal transition to non-fossil fuels without causing social upheaval, while externally it wants to confront and ultimately encircle Russia in particular, all the way to the South Caucasus, at the head of a "sovereign" EU - the most frequently used term in the foreign policy decision of the congress. What is meant is militarisation and a rejection of the formula of the SPD foreign policy expert Egon Bahr, who died in 2015, that the USA is indispensable for Germany, but Russia is immovable. The latter no longer applies, that is the content of the "Zeitenwende - turning point": the disintegration of Russia. With Putin and Trump in mind, the SPD declares, it is now "time" for Germany to "show leadership" in Europe and the world.

For the position that Germany must stand up for peace in Ukraine and peace with Russia and China and make itself independent of the USA, the interests of several classes and strata overlap.

Parts of monopoly capital fear for their good business, especially in China. Another part stands for a different conception of German domination in Europe. This is found in the AfD.

There are great illusions among the working people and the intelligentsia that an orientation towards German interests, different from US interests, would lead to peace. It is forgotten that Germany is one of the oppressor nations worldwide. The current partial subordination to US imperialism does not change the long-term strategic goals of German imperialism.

We know that both the classical ideology of social partnership, of which social democracy was the main carrier, and this "national" coloured variant have an influence on the consciousness of the working class, the petty bourgeoisie and the intelligentsia. From our point of view, pushing them back requires above all common struggles in which it can be made clear that the main contradiction is the class contradiction, which is ultimately also behind the main question, namely the question of war and peace.

RotFuchs is a tribune for communists, socialists and other leftists. It is the largest Marxist monthly magazine in Germany. Its website is rotfuchs.net

(1) The Two plus Four agreement was a treaty between the two German states, the German Democratic Republic and the Federal Republic of Germany, and the four powers that had occupied Germany at the end of the second world war – The Soviet Union, The United States, The United Kingdom and France. It paved the way for the GDR to be taken over by the Federal Republic.

 

(2) The FDP, Federal Democratic Party, is one of the conservative parties in Germany and a pickelhaube is a historic, now ceremonial, military spiked helmet

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets US President Joe Biden at the White House pic by The White House

German soldier in Afghanistan 2009 pic by ISAF

LNG terminal at Wilhelmshaven, Lower Saxony 2023 pic by Ein Dahmer