by Frieda Park

This year will see a general election in the UK. At present it looks like a safe bet that the Tories will lose and Labour will win. Is there any more to say? With media pundits taking up airtime and webpages with their endless, repetitious prognostications it will certainly feel like there is not. However, there are real questions about the direction of Labour and the future of the Tories.

On the right the threat of Reform, successor to the UK Independence Party (UKIP), is being talked up to a) try to pull tory voters into line behind the Party and b) to pull the Party further in the direction of a far-right agenda as Rishi Sunak struggles to assert the acceptable face of class oppression. Reform is polling at around 10%, only slightly less than the Lib Dems who seem still to be in the doldrums. Labour is showing an 11 to 22 point lead over the Tories in the polls – a wide range but even at the lower end still substantial.

TORY COLLAPSE 

But recent by elections have not shown a growth in the Labour vote, which has remained fairly stagnant often with slight declines. The critical factor in Labour’s success has been the collapse of the Tory vote. Labour won Tamworth by polling 11,719 votes - at the last General Election it polled 10,908, with the Tory vote collapsing to 10,403 from 30,542. Likewise in Mid Bedfordshire Labour won polling 13,872 (14,028 at the General Election) - the equivalent for the Tories was 12,680 and 38,692. The same pattern was evident in other by elections and even in Scotland, where Labour should be increasing its support, Labour’s victory in Rutherglen and Hamilton West was due to the collapse of the SNP rather than more votes for Labour. There 17,845 people voted Labour – at the General Election it was 18,545. For the SNP the figures were 8,399 and 23,775.

At the by elections voters also had reasons to punish the incumbent party due to the mis-behaviour of the MPs who had resigned or been booted out. That is a factor which will not be assisting Labour at the General Election.

Politics is rather more volatile and geographically fragmented than it used to be and even with the Tories engaged in a suicidal civil war Labour should be offering people more that will consolidate its vote across the country. Keir Starmer recently addressed the question of voter apathy in a general election launch speech, yet his policies are part of the problem and will be another factor potentially eroding the Labour vote. Who knows what their focus groups and polling are telling Starmer and his New (old) Labour backers, but making their main pitch somewhere slightly to the left of the Tories and slavishly supporting genocide in Gaza is disillusioning Labour supporters and potential voters. The impact could be enough in specific places to dent Labours vote – for example constituencies with a big Muslim vote or Scotland where the SNP could bounce back a bit from their recent difficulties.

This is causing concern across the Party, and not just on the left; there is disquiet on the right as well. Some elected members of the UK and devolved parliaments broke ranks to support striking workers in defiance of edicts from Starmer. Even more have rebelled over his uncritical support for Israel’s war against the Palestinians. This is a signal that Starmer has not completely captured the Labour Party, despite the carve up of selections and the drive to push the left out. No Tory MPs turn up on picket lines or Palestine demos, some Labour MPs do. However right wing Starmer is, Labour is not the same as the Tories.

Many on the left are justifiably angry at Starmer’s betrayals and the egregious treatment of Jermy Corbyn. But the current problems are rooted not only in recent events but also in the more distant past – an objective reality that cannot be wished away. Labour was not founded as a socialist party – it was founded by the trade unions to represent their interests and was largely led by liberals, social democrats at best. The working class in Britian has historically been prey to imperialist and capitalist ideas and socialist influence has been weak. Reflecting weaknesses in the movement, Labour leaders have been mainly right wing and have committed many betrayals of the working class over the decades. In a lot of ways Starmer represents a continuity with that tradition rather than a departure from a socialist past. However, throughout its existence Labour has also been the place where many, people like Tony Benn, have fought for the ideals of socialism and continue to do so. It remains the party with institutional links to the organised working class in the shape of its trade union affiliates.

NEW PARTIES - OLD PROBLEMS 

Despite the current situation, there are no grounds to suppose that the conditions exist to found a successful new socialist party because of Starmer’s policies and actions nor because of the up-tick in industrial struggle. Current struggles lack a political character, and although some unions are no longer affiliated, there is no move from the big unions to break with Labour and no sense that they would be in the business of founding a new party.

No other attempt has succeeded and most were launched in better circumstance than we are in now. The Independent Labour Party ultimately failed and great leaders of the movement like Arthur Scargill and Bob Crow founded new parties which made no headway. A couple have had some electoral success like Respect and the Scottish Socialist Party, but all failed over time. At present the Labour Party remains the key electoral vehicle and arena to fight in and organise for socialist and left policies and ideas.

We cannot escape the huge challenge of winning Labour and developing a socialist movement by short cuts. The new wave of struggle is a starting point for long term work to build more depth in the movement and in communities. This includes within the Labour Party, which remains to be for.

Rishi Sunak tries to fend off defeat. Pic by Prime Minister

Politics is rather more volatile and geographically fragmented than it used to be and even with the Tories engaged in a suicidal civil war Labour should be offering people more that will consolidate its vote across the country.